Toronto-Dominion Bank T.TD

Over done.

[alertmeipp]

The earning from US retail is ~25%, even assume there is not growth on it for next 5 years, plus annual overhead of 500mm.


We are talking about less than 5 billions impact to TD's value. And that's assuming 5 years asset cap.


Add another 5 billions to be even more conserative. TD lost 30-50 billions market cap because of this?


If those analysts and advisors are any good, they would not be working for someone else, and not in a Canadian banks anyways.

[DeanEdmonton]

Alert - you just have to quit injecting data and common sense into the hysterical atmosphere. Takes all the fun out of the full monty whining. :-)

[nedstar71]

Might be better if he quit injecting nonsensical data and the common sense may be taken more seriously.  $8 or 9 bucks off TD's share price translates into 30-50 billion off the market cap? 

[DeanEdmonton]

Nedstar - Not hard to see TD has 1.75 billion shares outstanding. Multiply it by any number you like to get the value drop. 30 billion would be a $17 dollar drop, so yes, he is exaggerating a bit using an $8 drop. Point remains, this should be a $110 share in the absence of the money laundering and that is over $50 billion in market cap to the current price.

[alertmeipp]

OK, I will show you the math. You can agree or disagree. But here it is: Canadian banks exclude TD is up about ~15% to 20% YTD, TD is down about 10%. I.e. TD is lagging its peers by about 25% to 30% mostly due to this US AML issue. (Its Canadian business is doing just done) Multiple that by 25% - 30% to ~140 billions market cap and you will get about 30 to 45 Billions market cap loss - mostly