Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

No value for Pipeline

[SPCEO1]

With the cash adjusted market cap at less than 3x revenues, it is pretty clear the market is giving no value to either NASH or cancer. Cancer is understandable since we have no human test results yet. On NASH, if you exclude Europe, then my suggestion that TH's discount to MDGL and NGM' valuation of 40% should probably rise to 70% since half the NASH market could be unavailable to TH. Even assuming that, THTX should still probably sell at around $7-$8 on a conservative basis ($2 for the legacy drugs and $5.50 for the US NASH business). You could also bump that 70% discount lower to 60 or 65% to reflect the better profitability of the US NASH market versus Europe.

[scarlet1967]

I don't think you would ascribe zero value to a phase 1 trial for a cancer drug, even the preclinical stage has a value, the company paid for the PDC preclinical and there are many companies at even preclinical stage which have been ascribed some sort of valuation based on their progress in the preclinical stage, the market for the indication and cost of the trials so there is NPV for all

[scarlet1967]

https://www.baybridgebio.com/drug_valuation.html

[qwerty22]

If we go with the worst case scenario and they don't do the trial with the EMA, I don't know that data generated for the FDA can't be used for an EMA approval. All we are talking about is the present moment in time. The EMA doesn't like the present data set, they may like the future dataset once they have the Ph3 data. Here's my take on a possible scenario. The EMA muddies

[SPCEO1]

That was an excellent take on the situation. I do think there is a 90% chance the FDA's approval of TH moving forward on a phase III is a done deal. So, RBC's take seems like a lame attempt by him to talk that down. TH announced it so he really should have done respect for that. Unless he views them as untrustworthy, which based on what we have seen recently might have more validity than

[longterm56]

[Bucknelly21]

We are always a couple months out ... so true 

[scarlet1967]

They said they got the letter to go a head with NASH phase 3 but need to adjust the protocol so I am not sure why we still put probability rate on it. Even if the EMA's approval is questionable that alone shouldn't rush them to close a low ball deal as the whole NASH was questionable just before the good PR. The good PR stated record sales when nobody would bet on it, many questioned

[palinc2000]

The momentum was Halted !!!! WHY?

[scarlet1967]

Ultra conservative somehow insecure old fashioned board members surrounding , influencing our CEO.

[qwerty22]

But unfortunately it seems true. "The end of the regulatory process" has been the goal for 2 years and we are still not quite there. If you're wondering about their ability to market stuff, they've been selling that story to us for 2 years and we've been buying it. I'm still buying it now even after the recent kick in the unmentionables.