Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Canaccord's Quarterly NASH Report

[SPCEO1]

It came out this morning and I have not yet had time to sift through its 211 pages (That is correct - it is 211 pages)

But on the first page, he has a table that shows THTX will start a phase IIb/III trial in Q3. 

Maybe he is betting the EMA will win and force a phase IIb before the III can get started. Or maybe he just did not have time to update such a huge effort for the latest news.

I will dig deeper into the report later and see if he explains his thinking.

There is still no standalone report on TH from him follwoing all the recent news. And still no new report from Mackie or RBC.

[realitycheck4u]

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[Bucknelly21]

This is exactly the problem they can't even get a decent analysis of the company from a reputable analyst. Stupid little things like that although small add up and slow everything down little by little 

[scarlet1967]

Reputable?? In his last report he predicted a raise at US $2 during 2021=wrong He predicted a %30 sale decline due to pandemic when company increased sakes by %17=wrong He also put a PT much higher than offering price for the same calendar year which was multiple the offering price= wrong He reduced  his PT from $11 to much lower when company moved from much smaller HIV NASH to general market

[SPCEO1]

And he is the best we have following the stock right now - yikes! I looked at what he said in the TH comments in the guts of the report and he noted the FDA had allowed them to proceed with the phase III. But basically, it was just copied from the press release from TH on the subject - no additional analysis or comments about strategy with the EMA. When you right a 211 page report, these

[Adonis]

the offer really killed the momentum ... it's been bleeding nonstop for a week yet the offer has been closed for several days .. it took us back several months ..

[qwerty22]

I don't think Ed Nash is an idiot. I think this 2b/3 call is his way to represent the ongoing uncertainty, we've speculated what that might be especially around the EMA. With hindsight it seems management have picked a complex path for themselves by shooting so high for a Ph3. The time/cash it has cost to follow this path with the regulators is payment for that. It's almost getting

[SPCEO1]

I am sure Leah will point that out. Not much you can do about it now as the report has already been disemminated. He can correct it in a standalone report on TH but maybe it is what he believes as well - that the company will buckle to the demands of the EMA for a phase IIb first. The rushed deal following the good news from the FDA may be an indication that this is the end result we should be

[scarlet1967]

Below is a letter sent from global liver institute to both FDA and EMA  August 2029, the message is NASH is a global lethal disease and patients acute need of a cure needs to be considered urgently  by both agencies in their decision making process. So both agency are aware of so far lack of harmonization efforts have cost lives. https://static1.squarespace.com/static

[Wino115]

I think there could be a positive is, in fact, EMA want's a bit more data. They are 100% clear that Phase 3 is approved in US, so that will be moving ahead on schedule. That's the big market where they have some sales presence. If the EMA want's some interim data, then we may get a quicker read within the first 12 months. Given it's an 18 month trial for the Phase3, maybe they just

[SPCEO1]

Oddly, I think the company has "proven it" to the market in spades. Had you told me at the beginning of 2020 that we would have a new, veteran CEO from big pharma, a new IR person from a very reputable biotech, new patent protection out to 2040 for Egrifta in liver diseases, would move into general NASH and get the FDA to agree to that, and all this ahppened in the context of a huge bull

[realitycheck4u]

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[scarlet1967]

As per Leah the primary reason for an early dilution when the SP is to put it mildly well undervalued(especially after the good PR) was a "meltdown of biotech bubble" which THTX has not contributed to at all. Unless this anticipated melt down will happen in the next few months and dragged a already depressed equity with it(which imo is just a speculative scenario and not a credible

[jfm1330]

The premise here is always that the management are a buch of fools when it comes to the pure business side of running a biotech or small pharma. They are good with the science, they make good deals when science is involved to acquire drugs rights or drug candidates, but they are plain incompetents when it comes to promote what they have. There is always this idea that if some US management team

[realitycheck4u]

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[rankininlet]

Survivalal of common share ownership interest is key.  One or two years back PLI was taken under by debt holders.  Mngmnt ran the research well but were insolvent.  Unable to continue.  Common shareholders got shafted as in 5% interest in the new company. It was painful and ugly ... seems THTX is cashed up thus not facing a take-under that wipes your ownership to nil or barely

[FredTheVoice]

Great post RANKI, with perspective of a company I invest in a couple of years back (PLI), and was a desaster..... In MTL, BLU (BELLUS), a another biotech has a similar but diffrent path than TH, but it shows how investing in BIOTECH means always rollercoaster.........when the pandemic started, and in april last year, BLU was worth 16$C per share..........and suddenly......PAF, 4$.......... I

[realitycheck4u]

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[muslix1]

my worst investment in biotechnology, it was Labopharm i lost a small fortune,,,

[qwerty22]

I've some empathy with the analysts. They are clearly sitting on the sidelines when it comes to THTX, I don't have the report but if it's 211 pages then he's clearly not doing that with everybody else. It might be dumb and lazy, it might just be a case of waiting for the uncertainty to resolve itself, I think that's a strategy you might justify, it might not be the best

[scarlet1967]

After the PR some legacy shareholders who were doubting the legitimacy of NASH felt more confident then after the dilution they start questioning it, after yesterday's comments they  feel more comfortable. The confusion causes by mixed messages which are not only words but actions are why the SP is where it is despite the execution. They need to align their actions and messaging and get

[qwerty22]

I don't think it's just mixed messages, I think it's very different circumstances. Oncology is straightforward, they ticked boxes in the preclinical and then got the outcome that would be expected when the boxes are ticked. NASH is very different. When you get a PR like the Jan 7th one that says you got the greenlight from the FDA the next line in the PR you expect will say we