Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Dumping 20M shares and keeping 10M warrants @$3.18

[JayjayUSA12007]

Quote:"...the Company issued 16,727,900 units of the Company (the “Units”) at a price of US$2.75 per Unit (equivalent to approximately C$3.51 per Unit) (the “Offering Price”) for aggregate gross proceeds to the Company of US$46,001,725 (equivalent to approximately C$58,714,929), including the full exercise of the over-allotment option to purchase an additional 2,181,900 Units at the Offering Price.

Each Unit is comprised of one common share of the Company (a “Common Share”) and one-half of one Common Share purchase warrant of the Company (each whole warrant, a “Warrant”). Each Warrant entitles the holder thereof to purchase one Common Share at an exercise price of US$3.18 (equivalent to approximately C$4.06) at any time until January 19, 2024."

These funds bought 16,727,900 + 2,181,900= 19M shares @ $2.75/shares and acquired 9.5M warrants @ $3.18
Let's say they will dump 19M shares on the market  at average price of $2.20/shares and keep 9.5M warrants. It would be equivalent to buying 9.5M Jan 2024 call options at strike price of $3.18 for $0.98/shares ($3.18 - $2.20). They will make unlimited gain when PPS goes up from now until 2024, but the most that they could lose would be just $0.98/share.
Whichever funds made this deal are genius and conversely, whoever in Thera negotiated this deal is an idiot !
This deal shows either the level of desperation or the depth of idiocy at Thera. Which one was it ?

[JayjayUSA12007]

I would like to clarify my observation regarding this deal: 1/ These fund fully expect PPS to go up after their due diligent, or they would not even risk $0.98/shr. 2/ From Thera management's perspective,  the company (Thera) would not lose anything: it's a bunch of printed papers. 3/ People who really lost out are current Thera shareholders before the deal. 4/ On the other hand

[canadapiet]

JayjayUSA12007 - (1/28/2021 2:16:59 AM)  Dumping 20M shares and keeping 10M warrants @$3.18 Quote:"...the Company issued 16,727,900 units of the Company (the “Units”) at a price of US$2.75 per Unit (equivalent to approximately C$3.51 per Unit) (the “Offering Price”) for aggregate gross proceeds to the Company of US$46,001,725 (equivalent to approximately C$58,714,929

[palinc2000]

Comments: 1-The number of shares issued is 16 million not 19 million  2-Apparently there are about  10 million Units in the hands of 3 presumed to be long term holders 3- That would leave about 6 million shares in the hands of retail /short term holders of which approximaty 2.5-3.0 have sold already and kept the Warrants as you explained 4- Thus there are still some 3 million shares

[ANALIAS00]

So if I understand the facts correctly: - No analyst are interested to provide serious and full detail report on THTX - No analyst see THTX's future as bright as we would like to - The buyers already sold their shares so we can only come to conclusion they do not believe in THTX's furure - Because of this horrible deal we must understand that nobody believe in THTX's future including

[palinc2000]

The buyers that sold their shares acquired  thru the purchase of Units probably never heard of TH before,,,They were just offered a financial deal...buy Units sell the shares and get very attractive low price warrants for nearly free and you stand to make a lot of money with almost nothing invested ,,,,,Analysts were probably taken aback and will let the dust settle before initiating coverage

[balmusette]

Eventualy it would be interesting to see if those who benefited from this deal ( especialy the large position buyers ) are friends or connected with some members of the board.

[jeffm34]

The CFO Dubuc has ties to NBF one of the beneficiaries     

[SPCEO1]

He does, but I don't think that is anything of great importance. The problem is the deal came too early, raised more money than they needed (given the catalysts for the share price directly ahead) had horrible terms and was done via Canadian brokers versus trying to expand their footprint among US brokers using the leverage of a deal.  Does it really matter if NBF got a small portion of

[jfm1330]

Sorry guys. This board is now verging on the crazy. It is hard for me to write this here because I respect many contributors. To highly dislike this deal is one thing, and I don't like the deal myself, but all the conspiracy stuff to explain it is pure BS. You can have the best science, promising clinical programs aiming at big markets, but if you don't have the money to do the work that

[FredTheVoice]

Very good post JFM. I just hope you are a little wrong about the 6-9 months......in a way, I think great news for this company will come before your prediction.... Lets see, GLTA, FTV.

[Wino115]

Good summary JFM.  I would also point out that Dubuc has told a few people that the 3 instutional investors are long-term, so they likely have kept all their units.  We can hope they've been the ones adding in this market. 

[realitycheck4u]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[bassini]

100% with jfm

[scarlet1967]

We can speculate all day re the timing, size and price tag for the deal, everyone is entitled to their opinion but the fact that their IR has not been successful is real. As per a reliable source Leah was approached  by cancer and NASH analysts more than a year ago so after more than a year she hasn't obviously been successful to bring them on board, so either she was lying or despite

[palinc2000]

Jmf the preaching scientist is saying the successful clinical results are not a slam dunk thus this is why the company could not issue stock at a higher price!!!  What a dumb statement ALL other Public Companies involved im Nash clinical trials are valued at multiplles that of TH.... If TH data is that weak then why is TH involved?    

[scarlet1967]

None of the ongoing trials are a sure thing just look at AKRO with awful drug once predicted to be the first drug for NASH failed at the very end of the process yet todate they have a market value over 1 billion $$ five times more than THTX??

[qwerty22]

I think Jfm has a point this time. Not all NASH companies are multiples of THTX, only the best and there are a few important assumptions you have to make right now to put THTX along side the best. The THTX dataset has great strengths, it also has holes and some weaknesses. I've been plugging away to say those weaknesses are important to how a NASH contender is viewed, I think they lie behind

[scarlet1967]

Not ascribing any value to any stage of a trial is not the way market looks at other R&D companies. I posted earlier an article about how to value R&D programs from preclinical all the way through all the stages. The NASH might have weaknesses but it also has strength, the drug is safe, they know the dosing, it worked in HIV liver battling with adverse effects of ART, the program is

[SPCEO1]

This post I can 100% agree with

[palinc2000]

The market value of THTX includes ZERO  for the pipeline,,,,ZERO ZERO ZERO  We can argue on how much value should be ascribed to the pipeline but its not ZERO 

[qwerty22]

The best equation I can come up with is ZERO endpoint data = ZERO value LITTLE endpoint data + BAD  leadership = ZERO value I don't think it can be that simple but......... how do you lose $1 billion in value? In this market? The simplest answer seems to be it wasn't lost, it never existed (yet).

[qwerty22]

Here's one of the minors in NASH trying to raise cash now, let's see what they get. Presently $150mil market cap. Must say I've become more aware of these guys in recent months, maybe better marketing/preparation than THTX. They have a not so attractive drug, basically testosterone, only good for men but with reasonable fat busting data and Ph2 endpoint data. They are doing stuff

[Wino115]

Lipocine is an interesting case for us to watch. There's a few similarities, the most interesting being that they also don't seem to have much in the way of sell-side analysis support. In fact, they still list Dewey Steadman as their analyst at Cannacord (talk about IR not updating websites!).   So they chose Raymond James to do a classic underwriting.  Maybe they will now cover

[SPCEO1]

This is clearly an inferior company to TH. If they end up placing those shares better than TH placed its, it will only make me more disgusted. So, let's hope this offering fails miserably so that I can move along in the stages of grief.

[SPCEO1]

I should have checked before posting that last post. The LPCN deal is done. They raised $28.7 million by selling 16.4 million shares at $1.75. There were no warrants. LPCN hit a high price of $2.42 two days before the deal was announced and it now is selling at $1.81, above the $1.75 offering price or a 25% discount to the high price before the offering was announced. TH is selling at a 18

[palinc2000]

The WARRANTS attached to the UNITS explains the  bad performance of the SP since the Offering,This was a HUMONGOUS MISTAKE by whomever negotiated the terms ofv the Offering..A 2 $ Offering price with no warrants woulld not have been well received initially  by the market but the SP would be a LOT higher than it is NOW ,One of the worst amateurish mistake I have ever seen ....Brokers

[SPCEO1]

Does anyone really think that Raymond James, who did not even cover LPCN before the deal, would not have offerd a warrantless deal to TH if they had been approached. If not, why not?

[palinc2000]

Brokers are a  fee hungry bunch,,,,,THTX should have called ther bluff but lack of negotiating skills by the THTX negotiator   was easily detected by the Brokers ,,,,,

[Wino115]

And we can assume they got new coverage from a decent firm -- Ray Jay. "So, LPCN with a market cap of $145 million, a drug that only has hopes of treating the male portion of the NASH population and which is in phase II, which only had lowlight US firms HC Wainwright and Ladenburg Thalman covering it before the offering, which has no legacy drugs generating any revenues, which has no

[SPCEO1]

This is another post I can 100% agree with.

[SPCEO1]

Sorry JFM, I don't agree with 100% of what you said as someone else has said. But I don't disagree entirely either. See my comments in red below.  

[jfm1330]

Sorry SPCEO, This a dialogue of the deafs or to put it another way that is line with the times we are in, we do not agree on facts, so it is very hard to have a healthy discussion. I don't agree that board and management at Thera are a bunch of fools or incompetents on the financial side of the business. They did not make a better deal because there was no better deals on the table anywhere

[SPCEO1]

Here we go again, sorry about that. You know I have great respect for you and for the knowledge you bring to this board. But see my thoughts in red below:

[Wino115]

I am also totally in the camp you are in, that evidence of success on both trials is the only proof that will work to turn around the markets ignorance (and it is more ignorance than ambivalence). It's these value-enhancing actual facts that create complete support for a higher valuation.   Biotechs are also hard because there's just so many of them. It's very easy to find the 5

[SPCEO1]

Begging your pardon, but we already got an enormous value enhancer when the FDA said that TH could be one of the relatively few companies that has the privilege of chasing the giant NASH market. The stock started to react to that and then the company squashed it with the offering. There is no legitiate reason why TH gets zero value for NASH at this point. We really should not have to wait for any

[palinc2000]

Hard to believe that Wino really means what he posted,,,,I am sure there are many caveats

[Wino115]

How I'm approaching this now is pretty simple. While I share many of the exact same sentiments as many other bullish investors on this board, I am looking at the market cap, the lack of momentum and the lack of any investor enthusiasm around THTX and asking myself what is it the market sees that I don't.  I think that's what JFM and some others are doing as well.  I am as

[realitycheck4u]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[jfm1330]

I explained it many times, I will try do it again in a better way. Thera is not seen as a legit NASH player at this point for many reasons, I think. 1- We still don't know what the exact phase III protocol will be, including the enpoints they will need to meet. 2- One thing we know is that they intend to treat for 18 months. In a sense it is positive, but it can also be seen as a lack of

[scarlet1967]

I have full respect for all engaged and knowledgeable posters like Wino and Jim. Having said that we all are entitled to our opinion but we also can be wrong at times . For instance when Tragarzo's sales were not going as well as we anticipated I am not sure how many times Jim referred to a chart indicating the peak sales for drugs are some 3 years after the initial launch and especially for a

[jfm1330]

You see. I was looking to find a positive way to look at Trogarzo's sales back then, and unless a dramatic change would occur in the next two years, it seems that my search for optimism was not warranted. It is anecdotal, but it should give matter for reflexion to those who think NASH and oncology have such value at the moment. This graph I showed many times to push my point was a way to try

[scarlet1967]

Of course they have holes and that's the point of trials but that applies to other trials too in fact that's the point of a sophisticated system set up by agencies to be able to proove the concept. My problems is those holes hasn't stop other companies to get credit for their programs progress at what ever stage they are at yet THTX doesn't get credit for their progress, this is my

[scarlet1967]

To be decent/humble is a rare commodity which actually helps running a business, it createy trust among your customers but being stubborn and stuck to old values is an epic failure. How many times Wino said he was standed corrected and I applaud that character cause acceptance of being wrong is hard  for most of us even Jiim said he was wrong/greedy not selling at $14. I was also greedy not

[SPCEO1]

It is very helpful for you to have taken us systematically through these arguments for why the market may not be giving TH as much credit as we think it deserves for NASH. Really, any credit at all! In the end, I don't think these arguments are anywhere near strong enough to justify a zero valuation on TH's NASH opportunity. Some discount is justifiable and we can have a spirited debate

[jfm1330]

I said at the end that I was playing the devil's advocate, so it's a bit pointless to tell me that a more positive take on all that is possible. I know it, but read the RBC analyst today on his last report. He basically take the negative side of all that and he is not alone and he is aware of everything about Thera in detail. So it has nothing to do with an unknown story due a non

[SPCEO1]

As I noted, I was not telling you (I saw that you were playing the devil's advocate) I said this is what I would suggest for the company to respond to those points you brought up. The issue is that TH has not put up a strident defense of their situation even when such a defense could and should be made. And I emphatically reject the idea that we shareholders or company management should just

[Wino115]

I think your responses are perfectly aimed at the facts and totally supported by their data and the factual developments.  I  had done something similar a while back and was just too tired to keep doing it over and over, but I also don't get why they don't put together a factual argument that acknowledges the past developments and puts ALL the pieces together to form a really

[SPCEO1]

They can do it a lot better than we can. I left out a lot of stuff because I am unsure of the science since I don't have a strong background there. It can be done and, to a certain extent, they have started doing it in recent coporate presentations. But they also now need to add the component of not just addressing the science skeptics but also addressing the valaution gap straightforwardly in

[scarlet1967]

VANCOUVER, Washington, Jan. 04, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CytoDyn Inc. (OTC.QB: CYDY), (“ CytoDyn” or the “Company"), a late-stage biotechnology company developing Vyrologix™ (leronlimab-PRO 140), a CCR5 antagonist with the potential for multiple therapeutic indications, announced today Nader Pourhassan, Ph.D., President and Chief Executive Officer, Scott

[jfm1330]

So now Cytodyn is the standard of how a management team should run a company!!! Wow! Sell Thera and buy Cytodyn. Good luck.

[scarlet1967]

CYDY market cap $4 billions,THTX $200 millions  CYDY's shareholders handsomely rewarded  THTX's shareholders handsomely ignored  please no financial advices! My point is,was and will be Theratechnologies have good enough ammunition to do what CYDY and THE LIKES were,are and will be doing.

[Bucknelly21]

I'm curious about the cydy credibility argument, the market seems to trust them yet everyone here says corruption is the root of their company. The more I see things like this the less faith I have in Thtx to be honest. They get credit for everything they do yet we get nothing and we are apparently the squeaky clean company 

[scarlet1967]

If transparency, active marketing, good communication and updating market is classed as corruption then the whole market is corrupted as CYDY is not the only company which has that strategy.

[SPCEO1]

CYDY is the polar opposite of THTX. They are great at communicating a bad, perhaps bogus, story and THTX has a good story that they are unable to communicate effectively. Both companies are bad in their own ways and good in their own ways. Maybe they should merge! Just joking. I don't want THTX to become CYDY but they could learn a lot from how they communicate with this particular bubbly

[SPCEO1]

I just envisioned the ultimate nightmare scenario - CYDY makes a hostile bid for THTX in order to acquire real drug prospects for CYDY. Acquiring THTX would be chump change for CYDY. Plus they would get actual revenues too. CYDY should actually a stock deal for THTX yesterday or sooner since they likely have nothing at all that will get approved. And if that happens, it would be something of a

[Wino115]

I wouldn't worry about that.  There is one overwhelming factor that precludes this and that is that CYDY does not want any reputable investment bank to actually do any due diligence on their financials - especially the balance sheet and the toxic lending/convertible reset deals they do, along with all the insider selling and warrant granting to nameless LLCs.  The skeletons in that

[Wino115]

I've lurked on a few CYTO boards to see what holders and bashers say. The current "big event" they are all keyed on is this Covid trial for leronlimab (newly renamed something else like Viryologic) in severe Covid patients.  The trial is something like 2-300 with placebo.  The bashers point out monoclonal antibodies have a hard time around acute inflammation and are better

[scarlet1967]

The reason they have audience is they are outspoken, how can a company build an audience when they are mostly in radio silence mode?? They give timeline for every little move while THTX doesn't even announce the submission of protocols! They tried for years to bring analysts on board,sure the RBC start covering the company thanks to the fact he was awarded to do the convertibles and since

[Wino115]

I'm trying to remember, but I think since I first invested they've had at least 3 firms drop covereage either because analysts left or were reassigned. The ones I remember (and you long haulers may know more) are CIBC, BMO and now RBC. I seem to recall there was someone else not all that long ago but I can't remember which firm it was in Canada that used to cover them and then dropped

[scarlet1967]

By all means try to attend as many conferences as possible to get institutional investors but fact is despite persistent efforts so far they have failed, they get coverage from some less reputable analysts which haven't produced decent reports ignoring the $$ behind their science and eventually moved on. So that was plan a which didn't work now they should move on to plan b which is......

[scarlet1967]

The company knew what the dilution does to the SP, the problem is lack of engagement with the market pre/post dilution when bunch of folks are handed millions of shares with warrants attached. Where are the efforts to stop the selling? The IP was down for over a weak ? No efforts? Radio silence?with all their progress no promotion? I would love to know what exactly is Leah doing from 9 to 5

[SPCEO1]

I have so far resisted saying what you have said, but since you brought it up, I agree that we long term shareholders do appear to be the only ones who believe strongly in TH's value/future. Analysts, and we had precious few to begin with, have effectively abandoned the stock (no report from Canaccord or Mackie - how is that even possible?) and management confirmed what they really think about

[ANALIAS00]

I wont give any credit to them. I am not ready to give them the benefit of a doubt. They should have explained by now. Were they really expected that SP be as low as 2.80(can) ?