Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

I would like to see TH endorse NASH

[SPCEO1]

As noted previously, I am wondering about TH's NASH strategy. From my perspective, the cancer opportunity is fantastic but I am not willing to give any value to it until we see that it is safe and works in humans, which we should know before too much longer. But we are also expecting the NASH phase III trial to start this year and, from my perspective, valuing TH's stock like a phase III NASH player is what should be driving the stock price at the moment. 

What concerns me is TH just sold stock at a price that had no value for NASH in it. And they followed that up with a presentation they controlled by focusing exclusively on cancer. Previously, they delayed the start of the NASH phase III until the third quarter, presumbably due to the need to sort the final details out with the FDA and to give them time to assess their EMA strategy and implement a new pan there. 

All that has left me wondering if management, who clearly knows more about the shortcomings in their NASH program, is trying to throttle down market expectations about NASH. Did they also push out the start of the NASH trial in order to have the early cancer results in hand before they make any decisions on where to spend on R&D in the future. If the cancer results are good, will they prefer to spend their money there over NASH? Can a company their size really handle both of these large programs? These may be questions the board is asking itself and may also play a role in the changed timeline for the start of the NASH trial.

I am likely thinking too much about this but am simply trying to connect the dots that may be there, but also may not be.

A full throated endorsement of NASH by management would be welcome to address this issue. Hopefully, we will get that.  Commenting on how they will handle two large R&D programs (cancer could become a large program pretty quickly if the early phase I results look good) would also be welcome.

[qwerty22]

I think your concerns are merited. They are clearly still struggling to come up with a clear strategy. I've tended to think this is mostly related to the learning from past failure that the whole NASH sector seems to have embraced. When you read that paper the 'hole' in thtx's data looks like a problem that those earlier failed programs had. I'm not saying they will fail just

[scarlet1967]

I would like to them to endorse everything more often. They did mention NASH even at Fireside chat, they just diluted and raised more money than they would need in near future if they only wanted to go ahead with oncology, they might not even needed to raise cash at the low ball price. NASH is a big money maker and they will be a phase 3 NASH company even if they need to drop Europe, theoretically

[palinc2000]

The Closing of the Offering is just 3 weeks old....The thought that they might not proceed with Nash in a Phase 3 trial is unimaginable unless  bad new data came to light in the last 3 weeks and they would have to disclose that without delay,,,,They maybe a lot of things but they are not crooks

[scarlet1967]

Why would they add the expanded access policy now when the PDC won't qualify for it until phase 2? But NASH can qualify when they start the trial.

[qwerty22]

Well the simple material fact is they don't have a program up and running in NASH yet, they don't have a clinical trials number, they don't have a trial that patients can enrol on. The cancer policy maybe anticipates what might flow from the trial being on a public website like clinical trials.gov, they don't have that for NASH.

[scarlet1967]

Or in my opinion a build up to NASH trial.

[qwerty22]

I agree, when they choose TO apply to the FDA and NOT apply to the EMA they understood where they where with the regulators so let's assume they also understood the FDA letter wasn't going to be the final hurdle. They understand they have a complex process. SPCEO's observation that there has been a rapid change of pace on NASH messaging looks like a reasonable one but as you said it

[palinc2000]

Spceo s reacti9on is quire normal,,,Once bitten twice shy,,,,He will eventually recover when TH 's SP recovers .....

[SPCEO1]

I am not sure there is even anything to it but I thought it was worth pointing out and getting some others thoughts about it. Thanks to all. But i defintely have some bite marks that have not totally healed yet and, while they may shrink if the share price rises, there will likely always be a bit of a scar.

[qwerty22]

You should approach THTX for some free Tesa samples to help with those scars and any sense you got burned!!! https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15260805/

[SPCEO1]

Ha! Well done!

[qwerty22]

The thing is with that interview there was a very clear decision made not to talk about NASH AT ALL. It's one thing to wind back expectations , it's another to act as if suddenly itdoesn't exist. I think if you recognize this as a meaningful shift in messaging then you might need a better explanation than just cooling expectations. A good reason to completely close the tap on public

[jfm1330]

If cancer results are really good, clearly good, then the stock price will sharply rise and they will be able to finance both programs. If cancer results are unambiguously good, the next financing deal will be much less dilutive. So I don't think they are waiting for cancer results to start the phase III on NASH. If cancer is a failure, they will only have NASH to spend on. That being said

[Bucknelly21]

Rusty I will refer you to a post a couple months ago I highly doubt that the panel that Thera has with loomba, grinspoon ect would campaign so hard if nash wasn't a real legit opportunity