Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Canaccord ups Price Target to $7

[SPCEO1]

Ed Nash has finally published a report and he upped the price target on THTX to $7 from $6. He is doing so primarily based on a better sales outlook for the legacy drugs. So, still not much credit for NASH or cancer although both are mentioned favorably.

[scarlet1967]

I guess the legacy analysts are great at their job but the job must be something else than....

[Wino115]

I guess the upshot to that is if there is any safety and efficacy data on cancer he will have to increase it a fair amount.  Then, when the Phase 3 starts he'll at least have to build a model and assign some kind of success probability to it.    The only issue here is that his firm is for sale and he/they may or may not be around or have different ownership that shuffles

[scarlet1967]

I doubt it all the legacy analysts are full of it and full of Cheeto's they should really support the NASH protocol cause they will soon need Tesamorelin.

[SPCEO1]

Assuming no further delays, which may be assuming too much based on past experience, we have beentold to expect safety data from the cancer pahse I in late summer and efficacy data by the end of 2021. To me, however, if TH 1902 is shown to be safe, I think the liklihood of it being efficacious as well must be high since we already know the cytotoxic works. I am sure medically it is much more

[jfm1330]

Since they cannot visualize if the PDC is really going mainly to cancer cells, like it is the case for Lutathera, the only way to have an indirect proof of that early in the process is through safety data. The toxicity of docetaxel is well known, which means they know at what dose you start to see toxicity signs, and it goes worst as dose is increased. So when they will reach these doses in the

[qwerty22]

I don't think you can assume that because it's not going into healthy cells it must therefore be going into cancer cells, it's very possible not enough goes into either cells and it mostly ends up in the toilet. There is also no logic to what SPCEO is saying either, you can't assume that if we avoid toxicity therefore we get efficacy. The first bullet we dodge is toxicity

[qwerty22]

These are my numbers for doses in the dose escalation phase in terms of docetaxel equivalent amounts, it's my math so it might be wrong.   1) 12.5 2) 25 3) 50 4) 85 5) 130 6) 180 7) 240 The MTD of docetaxel is usually given as 115 and the drug is usually administered at 100. That means the 1st four doses of Th-1902 are below the MTD of docetaxel and the top dose is only double

[SPCEO1]

Ed Nash does put some numbers on the NASH opportunity and has US NASH revenues of $555 million in 2028. He also projects THTX will earn about $2.50 per share in 2028. So, we are buying the stock right now at a PE multiple of just 1.36x 2028 earnings. Clearly, 2028 EPS forecasts are just an educated guess, but the potential for the stock price is evident.  

[scarlet1967]

He reduced his price target by 50 percent from $12 to $6 based on reduced sales now the company recorded their best sales ever and he is expecting $555 million revenues by 2028(which is probably the lowest number any other NASH company been allocated by their analysts by far), he expects favourable efficacy results by end of 2021 yet he raised his PT with $1 for the year? He needs to find a job he

[ggg088]

"He also projects THTX will earn about $2.50 per share in 2028" Surprised!! It will be similar as JNJ EPS, a SP $160 top company in this industry.

[jfm1330]

Oncology is such a boom or bust thing that predicting EPS in 2028 is futile. If oncology is really succesful, they will reach that before 2028.

[scarlet1967]

I don't think the PT was for 2028 it is for this year of course if oncology results are good all the journalists will up their targets significantly possibly new real analysts will join and the retail investors will be all over this stock.

[scarlet1967]

I miss read that post his EPS as mentioned earlier is just hilarious, I would like to know were the NASH numbers are from, does he know whether there will be other drugs approved by then? The true prevalence of the condition is still unknown due to lack of testing. If there are no competition and Tesamorelin will be the first approved drug the pricing of the drug will be much higher as well so

[scarlet1967]

I remember Paul on the CC saying thank you for your support to Ed Nash well I think by now we and the company knows his support is worth nothing same thing applies to  other journalists. THTX needs to understand they can't  rely on legacy journalists to support the SP, some say they cannot effect the SP I believe they absolutely can both negatively and positively. All that wasted

[scarlet1967]

Both Nash and Abraham have a success rate below 5 of max 10, tossing the coin has better odds. They are biased as Abraham stayed put for a while as a curtesy thanks to being awarded the closing of the converts and now due to his new circumstances he can't cover the company and as per Nash he put a $12 price target on the company for a good while hoping to push the SP higher so he could be

[scarlet1967]

My apologies for too many posts just letting the steam out.

[FredTheVoice]

"My apologies for too many posts just letting the steam out" - Scarlet1967 Well, your lucky, Stockhouse as not yet put a limit, but dont test them.... And, enjoy, the volume is still pretty good here ! Good sign; And, Always appreciate your insight, Go on.... FTV.

[scarlet1967]

Fred, I am not going away that easily,I have learned living in 4 different countries running businesses  in all of them one has to be knowledgeable, persistent, consistent and flexible and of course a bit of luck would help. I don't believe in limits when it comes to success. One has to start beating competition's records and when you are done with them you carry on beating your own

[qwerty22]

What portfolio? 5 out of ten in biotech is pretty strong.  

[scarlet1967]

5 of 10 from preclinical yes absolutely, but as we have seen these journalist are not committing to any decent coverage specially in case of THTX until later on when there are convincing information available(after the fact) well I rather do my own DD as it is NO  brainer when the company has made decent progress to come out and ascribe a value, I posted the below article earlier and as per

[Wino115]

We've spoken how the sell side research model is broken so many of the best analysts have left over the last decade.  There are still some left that actually look to find good ideas. My experience is not many investors actually care about the price targets and definitely not the actual recommendation for this reason -it is usually lagging and often wrong. Studies have shown that for years

[scarlet1967]

Exactly the value comes with in depth research which should also be accurate, point is how they get to their opinion rather the opinion itself, I would like to believe many of us here done a better job of analyzing company cause we are committed.

[Wino115]

I believe that too Scarle --that we've done at least as good a job as any analyst out there if not better lately.  Then again, the bar isn't too high in my opinion!   We've had a few things right and some wrong on this board.  I would say  Abrahams was one of the few that got Trogarzo right though.  But I believe it was JFM or maybe Qwerty that often cautioned

[scarlet1967]

I believe today's price action was all about shaking out weak hands, some folks who bought at much lower prices took their profit and moved on. It's inevitable not to have days like this when the SP has been appreciating session after session for the last few weeks, I am not sure it will be end of selling but it will end I would guess soon as I believe this had nothing to do with the