Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

NASH market and competition

[jeffm34]

There is a reason analysts are not assigning much value for Thera's NASH program.  The market is huge but not for Egrifta.  Oral meds will dominate the NASH treatment market unless there is a significant advantage with a particular injectable drug.  Similar results to using Egrifta can be achieved through diet, exercise and weight loss.

" The first line of treatment for NAFLD and NASH is weight loss, done through a combination of calorie reduction, exercise, and healthy eating. Weight loss can reduce fat and inflammation in the liver.  "

Spending money and resources on a NASH program is not the most effective use of company resources right now.  License it out if they want to pursue this market.  

https://www.pharmaceuticalonline.com/doc/analysis-of-the-non-alcoholic-steatohepatitis-nash-drug-pipeline-market-sizing-up-the-first-wave-0001

The opportunity for TH in oncology is multiple times larger and 4-5 years sooner than any NASH potential.  That is where all resources should be directed.

[scarlet1967]

The first line of the treatment for many diseases is prevention yet we still have folks with cardiovascular diseases, high blood pressure, high cholesterol. In reality it's much more convenient to take drugs rather than changing lifestyle. People know if they change their habits they will have healthier body yet the prevalence of NAFLD/NASH is growing? It's multi billion dollar market with

[jeffm34]

That's why you license it out.  Let someone else spend the time and money on it.  The oncology program potential is so much larger than NASH.   

[jfm1330]

Oncology is likely boom or bust, while NASH is quite sure.

[jeffm34]

NASH is far from a sure thing.  Oncology comes down to proper patient selection.  Its been brought up before but they really do need to develop a radioactive imaging marker to get an idea where TH1902 will get concentrated in individual patients based on their unique Sortilin expression.  Focusing on that would provide a far greater return than wasting time on NASH.  Someone

[jfm1330]

Maybe it's my english that is not good enough, it is obviously far from perfect, but by "quite sure" I intended to say something like almost sure, or likely to be successful. Risky to put a relative adjective with an absolute word.

[jfm1330]

That is not true, proper patient selection is critical to show efficacy, but there is a lot more that will need to go right.

[SPCEO1]

I think it would be better stated that "the oncology program potential MAY BE so much larger than NASH" TH just started a phase I trial and dosed its first patient. It is hardly a lock that we will even have a cancer program a year from now. 

[jfm1330]

Diet (reduction of refined fructose intake which includes sucrose) and 20 minutes walking per day would solve the high prevalence of metabolic disorder we see. It's not hard to do, but the message does not come across to a wide audience. Fructose should be eneny #1 like nicotine was, but the problem is not even recognized. Chronic long term overconsumption of refined fructose (high fructose

[Bucknelly21]

Egrifta is safe that's the leg up on everyone in the space

[SPCEO1]

I have wondered if the company is struggling with this issue themselves and that this is the reason for the delay in the start of the NASH trial until the end of Q3. By then, they will know much more about the prospects for cancer and they may want that before they start spending big bucks on NASH. But I disagree on the injection versus oral concern. While it is less than ideal, the F8 version is

[jeffm34]

They don't need revenue from oncology for the share price to go up. Positive results in phase 1 and 2 studies will boost the share price in multiples of what it is now. 

[SPCEO1]

Sorry, I thought you were referring to the timme until revenues were generated. But if you are saying share price reaction is the measure, I would argue that TH's share price should already reflect the NASH program's potential and the stock should already be hanging around US$10 per share just as a result of the NASH. I am watching cancer very closely but am not willing to give it any

[jeffm34]

What's more likely? The entire investment community has undervalued the NASH market for TH or maybe the market for Egrifta is much smaller than what is speculated on this board? 

[scarlet1967]

MDGL's CFO estimated the NASH market is about 50 billion dollars couple of years ago yet Abraham ascribed one billion peak revenues for Egrifta, Ed Nash less than that, am I missing something here? When they are ready and I really hope in not too distant future the company needs to make their own estimates which hopefully won't be out of thin air like the journalists.

[jeffm34]

You are missing the only thing that matters. The current share price the market has ascribed to TH's NASH program.  It's not an oversight by investors. It's a reality. 

[scarlet1967]

Believe me I haven't missed that and it's real so is the reason why.

[jeffm34]

So are you saying that every single investor is wrong except for a handful of people posting on this board?

[SPCEO1]

I am not sure very many investors are even aware that TH has a ready to proceed letter from the FDA for NASH. So, it is not that they are wrong, it is that they just are unaware. And that is the company's fault for not selling the news well enough (and then quickly stomping on the news with the OO). And the sales job needed to begin long, long before the offering. The news of the FDA's

[jeffm34]

Do you know what would make investors aware of TH's NASH program. A big licensing agreement with a company like Gilead to develop Egrifta in NASH. If the company's prospects for NASH are as bright as some here think, there are companies lining up to partner with TH.  Then the company can focus on the bigger opportunity in oncology. 

[qwerty22]

Yea, e-mail Paul to check all the drawers. Maybe Luc had one lying around that they forgot about. Right now just coming up with a protocol for the next trial would cost cents, add value and be 100x easier than what you suggest. Let's get thru that milestone first. If you think of the company as 3 projects a reset on sales, cancer and NASH then almost everywhere you look there has been

[Wino115]

[Wino115]

Oncology is not a given, it needs to be proved up before you can rely on it for revenues and then think about partnering for NASH. You'd also want to move the NASH project along further so you can get proper value for it. But your scenario may be what happens.  It's just that corporate strategy would be to see what oncology is and to further NASH.  As has been said here before

[palinc2000]

Agreed! Partnering will be a strategic decision and there is no way at this time to know if they should partner Nash or Oncology or both or neither....Phase 1 results in Oncology is the bare minimum needed to know if it has any value and FDa and EMA approval of the Phase 3 Protocol is also a bare minimum....

[SPCEO1]

Given they have announced they are hiring someone to negotiate partnerships, they either think they are already there or will soon be. The effectively have a  phase III NASH protocol approved by the FDA already (only minor adjustments likely needed after consultations). So, maybe such deals are closer than we think. My best guess is the partnerships may be more on the cancer side initially

[Wino115]

There are many permutations of what they could do, especially given the lack of a global sales force. IF any of these programs cross the finish line,  what I am hoping is that they keep all they can (N.Am, Europe maybe) and bring in cash and partnerships to manufacture and distribute in Asia, ME, other parts. Also, partner with others who have a toxin or drug they can perfect on the SORT1

[palinc2000]

Agreed again! Anything is possible including selling out the existing HIV  indications ,,,,,but I dont think there is anything eminent,,,,,,,The hiring of a person to negotiate partnership is just an indication that they may someday be willing to partner,,,,,nothing imminent in my mind unless they get an offer they cant refuse but this os a very remote possibility The only hiring that shows

[SPCEO1]

I think it is also possible that they have already been approached about potential partnerships and that is why they are hiring someone to evaluate those opportunities. I would be surprised if other companies were not already at least knocking on their door to feel them out on cancer.  As far as the offer they cannot refuse, that also is likely to be related to cancer than NASH. Big pharma

[Bucknelly21]

Rusty you clearly have some weight that can be thrown around... at what point do you start to do that, who the heck would be selling right before the aacr 

[SPCEO1]

I am not sure exctly what weight you are talking about - the ability to influence the company or to buy the stock and push it higher. Either way, I am actually quite skinny, so not much weight to throw around. On the stock front, we are a small firm with an already large holding in TH. Because of the value that always seems to be there in this stock (it is very rare that it gets caught up in a

[qwerty22]

I think partnerships can come in all shapes and sizes especially in cancer. You can have situations where you are just talking about partnering up for combo trials which are very popular in oncology, this can be more of a clinical partnership rather than a full on commercial partnership. It seems like that process can happen any time and all the time. Having said that most of the ADCs seem to go

[jfm1330]

Good luck arguing on that here. Been there, done that...  it is like arguing against revealed truth...

[scarlet1967]

We can accept the low valuation or we can try to find a reason, I go with the latter. Exposure is the first hurdle next one is conviction, the valuation of the company is a projection of market’s perception. TH initially was a biotech specialized in commercializing drugs, the valuation was based on net revenues since then they have gone through a transition so now they are also an R&D

[scarlet1967]

The drug is safe, they have the dosage and it worked on HIV liver, the upstream MOA and all these posts below and more should be worth something. Not a sure thing but mush closer to the end line than PDC at the moment, hopefully in few months that won't be the case. https://res.mdpi.com/d_attachment/biomedicines/biomedicines-09-00365/article_deploy/biomedicines-09-00365-v2.pdf