Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

How is this even possible in this market?

[SPCEO1]

Yesterday, Paul highlighted the cancer program and made some very impressive statements loaded with superlatives at the Bloom Burton conference. He also all but essentially told us the situation with the FDA, whatever it actually ever was, is essentially resolved and the NASH phase III trial will start by the end of calendar Q3. 

Yesterday and today, the stock has shown no evidence that he actually made those statements. And we are in a market that rewards many other stocks, if not nearly all other stocks, for such statements. In fact, we are in a market that rewards some stocks for the most ridiculous of statements made by their CEO's. 

How is is possible that TH's stock is treated so differently?

1.) Blown credibility via the performance of the legacy drugs versus management's previous statements. This goes all the way back to Egrifta but obviously Trogarzo was a bust too and now Paul has hung the analysts and the buyers of the OO out to dry with his recent claims about the legacy drugs prospects. It is very, very unfortunate that Paul did not start out his term as CEO by reversing that legacy of setting inappropriate expectations for the two legacy drugs as it appears to have had the impact of investors not believing anything he has to say, even when it is legitimate and should be believed!  

2.) What is abundantly clear is that TH has some amazingly attractive opportunities in NASH and cancer but they have burned so many bridges with analysts and investors generally that no one pays even the slightest bit of attention to what they are saying (other than us on this message board). No one is cheering for TH to overcome the huge hurdles they faced on getting NASH to phase III and therefore no one waiting with great anticipation when it actually happens. You need to have credibility with the "system" (analysts, investment bankers, institutional investors) that functions to price stocks so that investors are waiting expectantly for you to achieve such things and are cheering you on in the process. TH has just the opposite because the "system" has disengaged with them.

3.) When you do an offering like the OO, it just confirms to the "system" that you are not too smart and are unworthy of the system engaging with you. The company actually has something the market wants in NASH and cancer but they keep doing things like the OO so the market moves on to those stocks which don't have a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot.

4.) I have yet to see any strong evidence that TH even understands the hole they have dug for themselves in this regard. Following up the OO with the whole episode surrounding the Q1 sales highlights how they simply do not get it or how they are percieved by the "system". If the lack of questions on the Q1 conference call does not wake them up and the/or lack of volume traded in their shares yesterday and today following the claims made by the CEO at the Bloom Burton conference yesterday (I know, almost no one pays attention to Bloom Burton but if TH had a better profile with investors generally, many more would have tuned in to hear what he said as investors would be, like they should be, legintimately interested in any hint that might have come out about the cancer phase I trial progress). 

This is all quite ridiculous since the NASH and cancer opportunities are real. Cancer legitimately has a chance to live up to the superlatives Paul used yesterday and even more than that. Under normal circumstances in a case like this, especially at this point in a huge bull market, Paul would be at least something of a minor rock star and investors would be clamoring to hear the latest things he says. But we have none of that at all. We are at the exact opposite end of that spectrum and it is a huge problem.

I have spoken in the distant past with Leah about the credibility problem and she certainly was very well aware of it and it was her goal to get it sorted out. So, she at least is aware of the issue and had a strong desire to rebuild that credibility, but she clearly has not been able to get management to make the choices required to fix that massive problem. 

That crediblity shortfall meant that the market ignored the move into general NASH which led directly to the OO. The OO came with record quarterly legacy drug sales and a claim of 20% growth in order to try to overcome the credibility problem and get the share price higher for the offering, which then meant they felt awkward about highlighting how bad Q1 sales were going to be on the Q4 call. The announcement of the Q1 sales being $4.1 million below analysts expectations (a huge 21% shortfall) meant there were no questions on the conference call from the analysts as all faith in TH had been shot. Despite the massive shortfall in sales and the lack of questions from analysts, two analysts held their price targets in place and two raised them. I can only think this was a tepid "thank you" from the analysts for the $3-$4 million in fees they earned on the OO. The two who raised their price targets did so with about zero enthusiasm. 

It can't go on.

[bigcop]

. time for you to stop huffing and puffing. TH needs a kick in the @$$ get on with it

[jeffm34]

And that kick in the @$$ needs to be a shake up in the board.  We can continue hoping for changes or we can make a change ourselves.  

[Bucknelly21]

I thought you were taking a break, as tired as you are with all the complaints I think everyone is equally as tired hearing you say you are taking a break 

[SPCEO1]

Bucknelly, you need to use the "Quote" feature so people know which post it is you are referring to.

[Bucknelly21]

I see 

[palinc2000]

Buck,,,,I dont think you see.....

[Bucknelly21]

oh I do lol 

[houbahop]

SPCE01, you should calm down a little. You ranting is starting to sound like me. This is no good. ;)

[SPCEO1]

The fact that you and I might sound similiar gives a pretty good summation of how much the company needs to get its act together on this issue of its relationship with the investment community. They are doing pretty much everything else, well but from an investor'sperspective, it does not matter much if they continue to mess up in that one area. 13,000 shares traded today on NASDAQ following

[FredTheVoice]

Said it before, and a couple of times in the last weeks.... No confirmation about NASH, no big mouvement around the stock..... Nothing to do with management..... FTV.

[stockman75]

FTV, do you really think confirmation of NASH moves anything? My guess is confirmation of the protocal doesn't even move the needle. I don't think anyone is paying attention to THTX except a very few.  My guess. Only breakthrough cancer news starts to move this old horse.... Hope you are right though! 

[Bucknelly21]

kinda agree and if that doesn't convince anyone that management isn't the issue I don't know what will 

[SABBOBCAT]

It that doesn't move the needle, that is real confirmation in the lack of confidence in management. In this scenario, the assets would be more valuable in stronger hands and a buyout would occur. The Board and Management would sing praises and say "look at the shareholder value we have created", not realizing the value that was left on the table. In this sscenario we never see those&

[SPCEO1]

I agree we should brace ourselves for a smallish reaction to the news that the FDA has agreed with TH on a phase III NASH protocol. The evidence that no one is paying attention or willing to give TH credit for this is pretty overwhelming. Maybe at that point, people who keep saying it is the need for the phase III to be legitimized by the FDA that is required for the stock to reflect it will

[qwerty22]

This would be the culmination of more than two years work, they really need to give it the fanfare it deserves. Any other NASH company would have been building it's audience and telling the story for many years before starting the Ph3. The company needs to think about all that effort being condensed into one moment.