Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Building expectations

[SPCEO1]

Stock prices usually do best when a company has established a track record of making the right decisions and where the market has knowledge of important new info coming out on the horizon for that company. Because the company has an established track record of making the right calls, the market assumes the expected new info has a good chance of being positive and investors take positions in the stock in expectation of that postive news. Basically, investors are engaged and following events closely and anticipating them. WHen those events actually come to pass the stock normally moves even higher.  

TH has some potentially positive developments on the immediate horizon but no one cares because of their really poor track record in dealing with the investment community. Therefore, there are no investors trying to preposition themselves in the stock for those potentially positive news items. And when the news is actually reported, it can be ignored. 

I assume Life Science Advisors is working hard to get this sorted out and hopefully we see evidence of that very soon. The opportunity costs to THTX shareholders are huge. If you want to get a feel for what those costs might be, look at TPTX, just one letter different than THTX's stock symbol. TPTX, a drug developer with early stage trials in targeted cancer therapies, has a market cap of $3.2 billion and an average analyst price target that implies an expected market cap of around $7 billion. They have $1.1 billion in cash and spent $185 million last year, no doubt much of it on researchers who wrote papers and spoke frequesntly at medical conferencecs. TPTX stock is covered by a large stable of analysts. Basically, TPTX is everything THTX is not. But they may provide a decent model for what THTX could become. .

[Wino115]

Instructive.  Back in  2019 during it's early phase trials prior to FDA approval for their 1 drug, it was $300mil mkt cap.  Now up 10x.  The drug that was approved, and is key to their pipeline in other combo trials, is for a very specialized form of lymphoma that has only 8-10,000 annual occurances.  Compare that to what THTX is going after as far as addreasable

[SPCEO1]

I did not spend a ton of time on it, but I did not find an already approved drug. TPTX describes themselves as a clinical stage biotech company, so I assumed they did not have any approved drugs. I saw they had around $50 million in revenues in the last 12 months and half of that came from a licensing deal - maybe the other half came from this drug you are referring to? But  with $50 million

[Bucknelly21]

seems that the market just could care less about the asm and what might be said, this unfortunately is the narrative they have created 

[SPCEO1]

There are a very narrow range of investors paying attention to TH right now and that clearly needs to change. Ideally, it would change before any big positive news on cancer or NASH is released and not because of it. Hopefully, LSA can help with getting more eyes on what is clearly a very interesting company and start the process of rebuilding TH's credibility. 

[scarlet1967]

I think it's safe to say LSA alone won't rebuild the company's credibility but the company itself needs to rebuild it. They need to apply a number of changes to how they conduct themselves, their business, their marketing, their communication. I think the comparison between THTX and comps should also include their leadership teams now they have indicated the will re-engineer the

[scarlet1967]

This is from current website, how difficult is it to update the freaking pipeline in timely manner? Theratechnologies intends to submit its Phase 3 study protocol to the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European regulatory agencies in the fourth quarter of 2020. Subject to approval from the regulatory agencies, the enrollment of patients is planned for the first quarter of

[Bucknelly21]

Pretty basic stuff 

[Scioto]

Hey give them a break. They've been working for months to get up the May 7 notice about our shareholder meeting tomorrow.

[jeffm34]

If anyone here thinks things are going to change just because we talked about voting out a board member or two, you are sadly mistaken.    

[Bucknelly21]

Next time they won't be so fortunate...

[ANALIAS00]

What they said to Wino about the perfect board they have in place, I would say he and any other CEO would have answered the exact samething. He had no choice to answer what he answered. It was 100% expected. There could be a complete known moron on the board he would have answered the same thing. Not voting against at least one member was a mistake from us. It could have served Levesque and make

[Wino115]

It will be interesting to see the votes. Maybe if someone is really far off the others, it will be enough of a signal to Dawn on replacing that person with the capital markets oriented person she, Paul and we desire. They really don't need a large Board, just a capable one. She should ask for a resignation for low vote tally members later  when they find the replacements they and we want.

[juniper88]

Especially if we don't actually vote anyone off. I voted my almost 200k shares "No" against Mr. Littlejohn. I hope enough others did so at least a statement is made. Things have to change.

[realitycheck4u]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[scarlet1967]

The point is that we often compare THTX with other similar companies based on their science and try to understand why there are such a discrepancies in valuations. I believe the discrepancies can't be justified only based on the strengths or weaknesses of their R&D programs compared to comps. The overall performance of the company includes the success of the programs, sales, marketing

[Wino115]

Hard to disagree.  Paul's been there a year, made a few changes, understands the issues. My sense is he has a similar core belief. If they make progress with the hard facts coming from the trials and still no reaction, he'll have to move.  The board should also assert the priorities into the corporate strategy more forcefully for shareholders. We should give them a chance.  

[qwerty22]

Their tech is different to THTX. When I just read their presentation it brought to mind LOXO in that they are targeting specific mutations and getting very high ORR in their early data. It wouldn't surprise me that the market is pricing it as the next LOXO with expectations for a similar buyout price. My preference is for Sutro as a more reasonable comparable to aim at for the time being.

[houbahop]

Thank you for taking the time to expose clearly the core of the issue. I could not have said it better. ;)