Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

The uncertainty for a small biopharma and the last financing

[jfm1330]

Thera would be in perillous position today without the money from the last financing. Kudos to the board and the management for their wisdom. This deal was very unpopular here, to say the least, some are still unable to get over it. But what happened since then for the company shows that it was the right move to do. The decision to go in general NASH has always been a questionnable one because of the size of this endeavour and obviously its high cost. Also, since the last financing, the landscape of clinical trials in NASH changed. It is now percieved as much riskier. So, now, the uncertainty surrounding this program is at its peak. It's very hard from the outside to predict what will happen with it, but with all the delays, it now looks like doing a phase II would not have taken much more time.

You know I am very bullish on oncology, but I never said it was a sure thing. There are still risks involved and the possibility of a total failure are still there. This is a weak risk in my view at this point, but in clinical trials you are never sure. That's why clinical trials exist. So imagine the worst case scenario in oncology in a few months, at that point, without the last financing, in what financial position would Thera be? They would be close to zero, and with a disastrous news in oncology, the stock price would take a hard hit, especially with the uncertainty now surrounding the NASH program.

I also found funny to read here this morning that the news on NASH was a proof that Thera has no credibility, and that the market always knew it... Being the one who repeated it ad nauseam here, to read that after that news was quite ironic. And we see wit the stock price going further down today, that this credibility deficit is reinforced. Understand me well, I think that the decision on NASH is the right one. This program is not at a point where six more months will make a difference. Looking at their options and wait for oncology results was the good decision. But after firmly saying that the phase III trial would start this fall, this backtracking is obviously not looking good at this time and just reinforce the idea that Thera is not a trustworthy company.

The reality is that Thera is a very small biopharma company that has to navigate in turbulent waters. The covid pandemic is hurting them hard on the commercial front, and on the R&D side, they only have two programs with limited ressources. I still think that oncolgy could save the day for the company. It would be an awesome story and yesterday's news is basically a way for the management to wait for the phase Ia results to have a clearer picture. The results in oncology could change a lot of things. Again, if they would have clear efficacy results, they will no longer want to do the phase III in NASH.

[ANALIAS00]

In january the feed back we had from TH management was that they were VERY optimistic about everything (nash, oncology, sales). So because of that uge optimism we were wondering why a so bad OO. But also one reason to be mad at TH management about the OO is that they had a lot of time and opportunity to increase their viaibility and to built some reasonnable positive expection about their

[jfm1330]

It should now be called the NO, the necessary offering. Also, the idea that a better deal or a much better deal was possible was and still is wishful thinking. If Thera would have been owned privately by a billionnaire, it would have been possible for him just to put more money in and keep full ownership. But it's not the way it works for a public company, and believe what you want, last