Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Downgraded to 3, from 8…. With everything going on?!?

[Dcutter101]

WTH

[scarlet1967]

Eddie the eagle asked three questions during last CC, two related to partnership, now that the company will be trying to fund the NASH protocol by either partnership or the ATM no fees for him, recall he had a price target at $12 for a good while to pump the stock based on HIV NASH and better sales hoping to move the SP higher getting a deal done? This is how unethical this guy is, it's all

[SABBOBCAT]

Sounds like good old Dubuc burned another bridge...

[muslix1]

this morning a good sell off... up this afternoon...

[Wino115]

Yawn...Eddie only cares about NASH and isn't broad enough to add in other biotechs or cover oncology. His industry is in the doldrums and now NASH is further off and Cantor, who gets the oncology side, jumped in and has actual clients -they are now banking front runners. He was clueless on cancer developments. His firm is being sold and he needs to figure out a new future. But it is one more

[palinc2000]

I have not read his report nor any extracts. However I think he feels betrayed ,,,,I recall his reaction during the last CC when the decision to partner Nash was discussed and he seemed pretty disturbed,,The ATM with CF was the last straw,,,,CFO with a good working reputation is URGENTLY needed

[qwerty22]

If somebody could copy and paste a big chunk of his rationale? If that 8 bucks in some way was an attempt to represent the potential in NASH then there is good reason for the downgrade. The company giving up on their own internal program and narrowing the path forward to just partnership is a significant negative development. He is going to have to rebuild value through cancer. But it does

[scarlet1967]

  Below is his questions re NASH, did he asked anything about the protocol itself? No Did he asked any questions re sales? No So the analyst isn’t interested to understand the prospects of NASH or sales going forward? He isn’t Intrested in oncology! All he was asking about was related to funding the protocol, partnership etc. Then we have another analyst who hasn’t

[qwerty22]

If he'd asked them more bluntly Q1 How did we get here because for 12 months you've been represently a thtx-led Ph3? Q2 What are the chances of a deal? Any interest yet? Both reasonable questions. Let's just unpick what the company want us to believe in it's most basic form. 1) Nash is a potential multi billion dollar asset. 2) Their program shows strong potential

[scarlet1967]

I don't understand you, not long ago you said the futility analysis which was something you always wanted is not commercially justified based on 25% extra cost?? Now you are questioning why that extra cost tipped the company over to partnership idea..

[qwerty22]

That's not what I'm saying. Removing non-futility is exactly what is needed, dosing some non-hiv F2/F3 and biopsying them is exactly what I've always wanted. I would have taken it two years ago as a final Ph2 exploratory trial. I'd even still take it now as a Ph2 but I understand that the company don't want to give up on the value of the hard work in getting this protocol. I

[scarlet1967]

Again you said the market would value the protocol if they would add the interim arm to deal with the biopsy uncertainty now they just did that so now the futility analysis is adding uncertainty?What do you reckon the costs of enrolling 400 patients is 15 M? What would be the potential benefits? Removing "uncertainty". The partnership talks was mentioned earlier at the time the reason

[qwerty22]

Ed Nash's model says the company is giving up 85% of the revenue to bring in a partner. He's right to say that is the industrial standard because it is. To go down your route we have to believe the company is giving up 85% for the sake of an extra 15mil. If the company believed everything you believe they'd be hunting for the 15mil not for a partner. They are not. This goes deeper

[scarlet1967]

This is my last post on this subject with you. Note we all are speculating including Ed Nash. I don't know what is the industry standard for partnership in NASH because in my opinion there isn't any, deals get done in many shapes. Now presuming his 85% is correct and THTX ends up with 15% of a multi billion market, add to that they won't need to allocate resources to a costly/lengthy

[qwerty22]

No I get it. If you start from the massive pot of gold then however you splice and dice it then you always end up with something big. You can ignore that something important happened last Thursday because whatever happens, positive or negative, it's always overwhelmed by the existence of the massive opportunity. I don't buy that.  

[Wino115]

Lol, hilarious critique of the situation ;).  I believe the charity is sponsored by Cheetos.  As we hopefully see signs of the rebranding pulling in experienced biotech analysts over time, it is interesting to see all the stray mutts that wandered into the THTX alleyway and how none really embraced what was happening.  Then Eddie showed up and only cared about one asset, sort of

[scarlet1967]

Well he reduced his PT by 67% based on: 1-Better projected sales of Egrifta and less sales of Trogarzo? I guess he forgot as of now the sales of Egrifta with great margins and not shared is higher than the sales of Trogarzo, so the net effect on their income statement should be positive! Did he asked any questions re company's take on the competition for Trogarzo? No 2- The NASH partnership

[Wino115]

We shouldn't waste too much time on this since it's a one day algo puke, but he actually showed a revenue stream of royalties on NASH starting one year later, 2026.  It grows to around $170mil by 2028 and all profit.  So it's in model. While I fully understand not having much of anything for cancer in a valuation, perhaps just option value, it shows how lazy they are when

[scarlet1967]

Quite frankly the legacy analysts do more harm than good, their numbers are bogus some are not updated, all are mostly interested in earning fees rather than producing accurate analysis. It seems so far the company hasn't managed to attract decent analyst coverage. What is their plan B to support the valuation since the plan A hasn't worked? Doing nothing???

[qwerty22]

I buy what you're selling on oncology he has definitely picked the laziest route. I generally agree with you're approach on how to model this. The downside is you're piling assumption on assumption on assumption and within a few month we might get a better foundation for those assumptions. His baseline on oncology at this point is wrong but I believe he's data driven and if they

[qwerty22]

Thanks. I mean I don't hate anything he says. Egrifta lipo sales have jumped around the entire time it's on the market but have stayed within a more narrow band when things are running smoothly. Getting them out of that band and higher will not now happen from a boost in reputation as a liver fat buster. He's pointing to the best material opportunity, F8 With Trogarzo I focus

[SPCEO1]

There really was no rationale and how could there be? Nothing is going on at THTX that even remotely justifies such a price target cut. He, and/or his Canaccord bosses, are no doubt just ticked off he did not get the lead on the January share offering nor the ATM. It is just Wall Street doing its vindicitive thing.  Again, I think you are too extreme in your negative thoughts on NASH. But

[qwerty22]

It seems to me he's done the reset on some of the aspects of the business that you want, maybe his motivation is less important than that basic fact. He certainly has somewhere to go on his appreciation of cancer giving that is at zero. This is his new baseline. It's been an ugly process getting to it but it's something to build from.

[SPCEO1]

It was odd that he did not write a report on the quarter in a timely fashion. My guess is there were negotiations ongoing about the ATM and Canaccord was being considered. Given Canaccord's inability to bring any new investors to THTX, despite his favorable coverage, it seems rational to me for THTX to have tried something else. And it is rational for Canaccord to be ticked off about that

[qwerty22]

I bow to your experience on the machinations of the investment industry, it's always interesting to read. I'm not the expert but if he built his NASH model on thtx getting 100% of sales and now it's 15% then technically something big did just change. Are you not doing a similar thing to your NASH model?   I accept your description of the relationship, I accept he got sales

[SPCEO1]

Lots to discuss on this but first, you may now rise from your bow! I think you are aware that the equation surrounding go it alone versus a partnership is much more complicated than just 100% versus 15%. Frankly, no one has anywhere near enough info to model what the parntnership means right now as it could take so many forms. The company did itself no favors by not outlining at least a little of

[qwerty22]

Back creaks, bow ends. Not spellcheck, old brain, I meant Cantor not Canaccord. I don't mind Ed Nash but one is enough. Partner quality matters. My wet dream is Novo Nordisk with their GH expertise with serious intent to get the trial done and maybe throw in a combo arm with Semaglutide as the icing on the cake. Any serious Pharma with serious intent should unlock value though

[canadapiet]

Man o man,  the same sh.t again and again!! They have no plan, they act "on the moment" and don't have the skills to foresee to some extent the future! 1) when shareprice was much higher they did not do "an offering" because they did not need any money at that time .......Mrs. L Gibson her words (= very bad management....!!!)  2) when asking her why not follow

[realitycheck4u]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Bucknelly21]

Was actually thinking the same thing, it's the exact opposite Pete, Thtx is the trail blazing for PDc no one else is. 

[jeffm34]

He probably didn't like the phone call he got either, after missing the prior conference call when no one showed up. 

[palinc2000]

I still dont understand why Paul has not yet made a CFO change,,,,,I really think he is part of the problem,,Analysts have to be spoon fed and they hate to be made looking loke fools,,,Going from 12 to 8 to 3 shows how bad communications have beeen,,,,So 12$ was way too high and I think 3 is too low but I dont expect Eddie to be the first to upgrade when and if positive developments occur

[SPCEO1]

In defense of TH's choice to go with Cantor over Canaccord, Canaccord did provide favorable coverage on TH but it did not seem to translate into new holders of the stock. So, TH is justified in my view in looking elsewhere to find an analyst that can bring some clients into the stock as well as write favorable reports on the company.