Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Lowering expectations on efficacy???

[qwerty22]

Not strong.

Also. He's clearly not prep'd to talk on market opportunity.

[SPCEO1]

Perplexingly, he saved the harder sell on cancer until the end, where he brought up some new stuff and really got more animated about the opportunity. The preliminary efficacy data, however, was not highlighted or re-affirmed for before the end of the year. But we did get: 1.) Partnership incancer being pursued in China. 2.) Dosing weekly versus every three weeks in cancer 3.) Acknowledgement

[SPCEO1]

I just quickly re-listened to the relevant part about the preliminary efficacy and Paul noted that if they see it they will "tout it to Wall Street and our investors". No timing was mentioned on when they would tout it but I really do not think anything has changed on this front yet. Conceivably, the efficacy might not be seen until the last patient and they would need a few months to

[Wino115]

Are you saying that because he reemphasized that 1a is focused on MTD primarily? I think he's probably right to do this and we know given it's all-comers, last option patients, relatively short treatment period, small group,  etc... that it's not a significant cohort for capturing true efficacy. I think we've all only hoped for a few signs that may back up some of the pre

[Bucknelly21]

Another non event, we have heard the same pitch for like 8 months 

[SPCEO1]

There was defintely some new info in that presentation, so I would not describe it as a non-event from the information content perspective. And if one of our medical team could expound on the potential significance of the immunology comments, it would be much appreciated. But I agree it is a non-event in terms of the stock price. The problem is that it is only us who are  listening at this

[qwerty22]

This is just where I'm at. It between Wino's sensible expectations of what 1a can deliver, which is PoC and SPCEO's "really impressive cancer data". I'm getting we will be more likely in Wino's ballpark, I'm putting off "really impressive" to a later date. What can we expect PoC to deliver in terms of SP?

[Bucknelly21]

I hope Thtx uses the past as a lesson why you can not continue to burn investors analysts and the market and expect anyone to believe or take you seriously. They didn't correct bad forcasts and price targets, they do not give adequate updates on pipeline, and they did a poor offfering on the back of long term shareholders and now they are paying the price for it despite all they have

[qwerty22]

He has to be deliberately not talking about the ongoing situation with the cancer trial (and even with NASH). It's totally frustrating but I can think of genuinely sound reasons for him to do that. So I can't hate him for it.  

[qwerty22]

What you are saying here is right, and I know it's right, but I'm hoping for more. I guess I'm seeing his words indicating that they will get their PoC but not much more than that. But the optimist in me was hoping for something extra that went a little beyond that. I guess I'm not seeing anything extra being represented in his words. So yes things are on track for part2 but I'

[Wino115]

I'm an optimist too, but we're all just speculating. If they see things like what they saw in pre-clinical and draw comparisons, I think that would get loads of drool on the street.  In other company trials, even just the anecdotal on a few patients, if very strong, excites investors.  So guess we'll just see. Anything showing POC I think would be validating and exciting news

[qwerty22]

I quite liked the questions. The second question "what will be in the PR to Wall St?" I thought that was a clever way to try to tease out a little about the ongoing situation. If it had been me and I was sitting on strong data I probably would have started gushing about efficacy. I probably wouldn't have focused on MTD even though I agree that's the main focus of 1a. So I'm

[SPCEO1]

I think you can play poker with him as I saw him glancing at his notes. If he is as cool a character as you suggest, he would never give you such a "tell".  I guess the question we would like answered is why are they being so coy with cancer info. It is an open label trial and they could give more updates if they wanted to. So, does the coyness mean they don't have anything

[qwerty22]

My belief is you don't dribble out data. You can do that if you think the data is going to all be positive and will continue that way. But that's unrealistic. So maybe you would like to talk about this snippet of good news, but out of honesty you really should also mention this "bad" news or the context in which the good news occurs and so a snippet turns into a deeper discussion

[SPCEO1]

If the phase 1b trial shows efficacy in several tumor types, it is hard for me to see how TH stays independent as they would likely quickly attract some offers they could not refuse. I ahve to wonder if the FDA in situations like this, where the cancer fighting implications could be enormous, tells several big pharma companies on the sly they would prefer if they took the research out of the hands

[qwerty22]

Wino is right one indication or two doesn't make a huge difference. I'm not sure a large Pharma would do things much different. The really different path is if the program went indication agnostic with the trial. You can talk about SORT1 as agnostic in the hypothetical but in practical terms it becomes more complicated to implement.To justify that you'd be either be looking at a very

[juniper88]

Personally,  I am not feeling very optimistic about the trial.  From what I understood (and what PL has mention before) if there is a strong efficacy signal then they will share it will Wallstreet. Which tells me they don't have a strong efficacy signal yet.  The question is why?  When you look at all the different cancers and the percentage of patients that over express

[juniper88]

Trying to calculate # of patients in 1a. So, 65 patients overall.  In 1b there would be 5x10 = 50 patients. That would leave 15 patients for 1a.  Did I get that right? So, what is the probability that out of 15 patients none have SORT1 hightly over expresssed?

[SPCEO1]

Unlike yourself, I remain pretty optimistic just based on Paul's characterization of the trial. I know he is a salesman but he has staked out some pretty high ground from which he would have to come down from in the way he has generally described the cancer phase1a. Like you, I had assumed 15 patients in the phase 1a. I guessed that half would not be sortilin expressing and the other half

[Wino115]

All very good questions and you, as well as all of us, are right to be skeptical until we see the human data…coming shortly!  You’ve identified the biggest problem —size— with trying to put too much in on a 1a that is really only there to assess safety and dosage level.  We get a dosage, but everything else is just secondary bits of data that can help us see if the whole POC of the

[SPCEO1]

Well done, again, Wino!

[scarlet1967]

This as good explanation of all possible scenarios as it can get another somehow biased speculation is if the results are much worse than what they hoped for why starting talking about a potential partnership in China so early in the process. Also Paul mentioned they could announce the MTD anytime from now to end of the year which is telling me they are getting close to the determination of the

[qwerty22]

I think your logic is fine but I think the real world is often messy. I think there are a number of ways the efficacy signal might show up, what that signal looks like determines how soon they might report it. We could imagine a super strong signal. A number of complete responses (CR) or some very strong partial responses (PR). We might expect such a strong signal to show itself pretty quickly.

[juniper88]

Thanks,that makes a lot of sense. (What Wino wrote also) I believe most of these patients would be very happy with prolonged SD. As for the company, SD means the patients would stay on the treatment.

[qwerty22]

An example of why he might have specifically mentioned China deal [url=https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210929005141/en/Overland-ADCT-BioPharma-Announces-First-Patient-Dosed-in-China-with-ZYNLONTA®-in-Pivotal-Phase-2-Clinical-Trial-for-Diffuse-Large-B-cell-Lymphoma][/url]