Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Expectations for Next Week

[SPCEO1]

On Tuesday, TH will present at the HC Wainwright NASH conference. They have one of the worst spots at the conference, essentially the last presentation of the day. With few likely to be signing in to listen to the conference in the first place due to NASH being somehat hated at the moment by investors due the many NASH drug trial failures, andwith those who do attend likely having their head's mostly fried by massive data dumps by previous speakers by the time TH gets to present, I am not expecting much from this event. It does give TH an opportunity to speak about the status of their partner search/alternative financing search, but I doubt we will hear much about either. 

On Wednesday, we get the third quarter financial results annoncement and quarterly conference call. My best guess is that TH's sales in Q3 are pretty close to what the analysts are forecasting but the risk is probably greater to the downside. One potential positive is if there were more sales in Germany than we might think. Earnings are harder to forecast than sales but we know they have been spending more money recently, so there is probably a good chance they come up short versus the analysts expectations on that front. But there are often special one-time items that distort earnings. Cash will likely have been burned through faster than in the past so they might find it hard to surprise us on the upside on cash this quarter. 

None of that should matter much anyway. What could really move the stock is some meaningful update regarding cancer and/or NASH. I am not expecting much on either front but you never can be sure how they might characterize the trial or change expected time frames. It seems everything in drug trials takes longer than originally expected, so I am half expecting them to push out the phase 1a data dumps.

Basically, I am not expecting much of major significance to come out of next week's events. I suspect we will have to wait until November before we get the first  info about the  phase 1a trial. And it is hard to see a NASH partnership or other alternative financing happening before November as well. We just have to hope that TH's management and board would not be so foolish as to pursue another ONO before the share price has a chance to jump on the back of any good cancer data they might have in the not too distant future.

When we finally do get cancer data, what are we hoping to see? The trial is meant to determine the Maximium Tolerable Dose (MTD) for the phase 1b. I am not sure why it will take a while to determine that but it seems we are currently expected to hear that around Christmas. Also, safety data, which seemingly must be pretty good given the trial has apparently been uninterrupted by safety issues. Perhaps there were some Dose Limiting Toxicities (DLT's) but evidently not enough to derail the trial's progress as Paul said the trial was "going well" last week and this week should see the final dose being administrered if it was on schedule.  But what we really want to see is Proof of Concept (PoC) via some preliminary efficacy info. This is what we hope they will share with us first, hopefully in November in time for Thanksgiving in the US, so we have something to give thanks over.  And it would be great if it was seen in different sortilin expressing tumors, assuming the trial had those and those patients survived long enough to obtain usable results. The FDA has asked that they examine all the tumors to discover the amount of sortilin expression and to see if that coorrelates with any responses in the tumors. So, hopefully, we will see some data that highlights that relationship being what we  would expect. Not being a scientist, I am not able to think of many other things we would want to see but I know there are other key items of interest as others more knowledgeable than myself have talked  about them previously. Basically, we want to see as much as what was indicated in the pre-clinical work confirmed as possible. And who knows, maybe things will even turn out better in humans than in the mice.

Paul also mentioned 10,000 potential patients in the recent presentation. So, if they were able to get 10,000 patients and the drug had a price tag of $10,000, then that is a $100 million in annual revenue. If a price tag of $20,000, $200 million and so on. Does anyone have a good idea of what price range a drug like TH-1902 might be found?

[Wino115]

I think you have it.  I did notice that there is a whole lot of data collected in these initial phases which needs to be understood by the investigators to inform the second leg discussions with the FDA.  That takes time if it includes scans, safety issues, etc... I think Paul does wish to meet or pre-empt the deadlines he sets, so Nov/Dec is still in his sites. There's a lot of

[SPCEO1]

Excellent info as always Wino - thanks again!

[qwerty22]

If they are smart then the end of year timeline already has plenty of contingencies in it. Barring some extreme event (no evidence for that), then there should be no real reason to overrun. I'm hoping they don't need to use all the contingency time and we get surprised early. I see the timing of going public as separate to all the things that have to be done to move on to part 2. The

[juniper88]

My wife currently is on Niraparib, a parp inhibitor for recurrent ovarian cancer maintenance.  It doesn't usually kill the cancer be can delay it from returning.  Anyway, the cost in canadian dollars is $8047 for a box, which is 28 days worth of capsules.  Btw, the medicine doesn't even do that much for someone like my wife who is not BRCA or HRD positve.  Still, in USD

[Momo25]

All that good information to justify the failure of the company in achieving their sales objectives for Trogarzo and Egrifta. Unbelievable!

[longterm56]

Can you elaborate, Momo?  I don't understand how you are connecting next week's expectations with drug sales 3+ years ago. What am I missing?   -LT

[Kd5513]

Pinnacle............. did you make a new account under MOMO25?

[CreatingApe]

ahhh it is pinnacle isn't it!