Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Something big is likely in the works

[SPCEO1]

Evidence:

1.) They managed to get the retired Pfizer CMO as a scientific consutant

2.) They liked their IR officer but she left because a family situation would not allow her to travel - so they needed someone in that role who could travel and explain what is going to be announced.

3.) They have gone totally silent yet still have meetings scheduled with large shareholders later this month.

4.) They pulled the corporate presentation and have not yet replaced it. It would be pretty easy to update if there was not something significant going on that would really lead to material changes.

5.) They gave larger options grants and gave them earlier than normal.

My best guess is whatever is coming down the pike will be viewed as a positive development. The chances of a big fundraising occurring on the back of any such good news is high, unless the good news is partnership agreements that bring upfront cash along with them. 

There could be a series of pieces of good news - China cancer partnership, other cancer partnerships, NASH partnership, acquisition of other drugs, selling Trogarzo rights to someone else to concentrate on Egrifta and cancer, etc.

There could also be a friendly acquisition of THTX in play and that is why things have gone silent and big options grants, etc. 

While the market is tired of the wait for news, there is meaningful evidence that something signifcant and good is being worked on behind the scenes.

[realitycheck4u]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[jfm1330]

Funny to read that. All those complaints on how bad this company is at almost everything, but don't sell my wealth!!!

[realitycheck4u]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[jfm1330]

Yeah, Paul, the guy who decided to buy Katana. Oh wait! Sorry it was Luc...

[palinc2000]

Yea bLuc was a great visionary!!!! with a great scientic mind !!! and a lot a gravitas !!! and so articulated!!! and more and more b.....How I miss him!!!!

[SPCEO1]

I think you may be overlooking one very badly done refinancing since Paul came on board. 

[jfm1330]

Never sure of anything, but this makes sense. Add to that a lot of hiring for important positions.

[SPCEO1]

I am not sure what to exactly make of the hiring efforts. Hiring a Chief of Staff would seem to indicate that a friendly takeover is not in the offing and Paul is planning on handling things himself. And the lack of extensive hiring on the research front seems to indicate TH thinks most new reseach will be done by a partner as I can't believe the research resources they currently have are

[jfm1330]

I don't know if you remember, but Marsolais said in a recent CC that they have many development projects submitted to them by academic research people here in Montreal and that they are considering some for the future. It's the new model in biopharma.   To further develop the SORT1+ platform they don't need a huge team. It's not rocket science, it's pretty basic

[stephanedodier]

SPCEO you forgot this one..... THTX is working with a partner to take them private at a ridiculous price (let's say $4US), and then get working capital from that partner for NASH, Cancer etc.... and in 2-3 years THTX get back on the stock market at .... $4B? Qui vivra verra !

[SPCEO1]

Do you know an investment banker that would work with us to loan the necessary finds? We could do it ourselves! quote=stephanedodier]SPCEO you forgot this one..... THTX is working with a partner to take them private at a ridiculous price (let's say $4US), and then get working capital from that partner for NASH, Cancer etc.... and in 2-3 years THTX get back on the stock market at .... $4B

[stephanedodier]

We had a similar story few month ago with DOREL https://www.bike-eu.com/market/nieuws/2021/02/major-shareholders-obstruct-dorels-take-private-deal-10139771

[jeffm34]

The end of month meetings with major shareholders is likely either to do damage control for something they are going to do or to garner support for something they want to do.  If it is a positive event like a partnership announcement or good results in the phase 1 trial there's no need to engage shareholders individually. You make the announcement and hold a short conference call and that

[palinc2000]

I dont believe  for one minute that such a meeting has been confirmed...That simply does not make sense,,,

[Bucknelly21]

I believe rusty confirmed it, I sort of think that if it were good news then why would you want to not pr it and meet with just large holders ?

[PWIB123]

@SPCE01 I'm assuming based on your comments you weren't invited to the large shareholder meeting.  I would have presumed you would've been invited since you represent such a large group of shareholders.  Were you not invited?  Do the large shareholders represent a controlling interest?

[SPCEO1]

I was invited both to two meetings I am aware of (one on 1/24 and one on 1/25) and the company also offered to meet me where I live as well. The large shareholders do not represent a controlling interest. TH called these shareholders and offered to meet, so the company instigated the meetings. I think it is safe to presume that some sort of info will be publically announced prior to those

[PWIB123]

Quite the quandary.  Thanks for the additional insight.

[palinc2000]

So it seems that it is indeed a fact!!!! My first reaction is that I think it is a very bad idea.....My suspicious side thinks that they are on the verge of accepting a buy out and they will need at least 2/3 of approval by shareholders or even 90% to force dissenting shareholders to tender their shares,,,,,,,The other possibility is the need  to raise capital at unfavorable terms (ie high

[Bucknelly21]

Do you really think they would do all that hiring to just settle for a buyout?

[palinc2000]

Most of The positions advertised dont seem to have been filled so that would not be a problem but I dont think that a buyout is very likely at this stage...I am still wondering why a Meeting has been called with apparently no known agenda and no list of all participants.It cant be about running the business or discussing material info not yet disclosed to the public.... That leaves the other

[scarlet1967]

It's hard to know which positions have been filled, there is a discrepancy between their career section on the website and postings on LinkedIn. I am not sure the website gets updated as often as LinkedIn. Just in December they recruited two scientists also it seems like they are not just hiring but also laying off people as some employees on their LinkedIn account are not listed there now. At

[palinc2000]

I was assuming that the carreer section on the website was accurate,,,but even if it is not the last version I think we know that there are still many unfilled positions,,,To be clear I am not predicting a take over ,,,,,What do you think id the company s goal in convening a meeting with major shareholders?

[scarlet1967]

If I wanted to speculate and that's all we can do right now my take is what others have said either they will be trying to keep large shareholders sweet before next annual vote or preparing them for a fund raising I am not sure why they would initiate these meetings behind closed doors in order to inform those share holders of any news good or bad? I certainly hope I am wrong but any

[SPCEO1]

The idea that the company is going to tell these large shareholders something that has not already been announced publically has been stated several times already and, well, youight want to consider not saying such a silly thing anymore. That just is not going to happen since the TH executives I am pretty sure are not anxious to go to jail. My best guess is something will be announced before

[scarlet1967]

While there are wild speculations about these meetings it's worth remembering last January they issue the good PR and then two days later they did the offering! They didn't release multiple news in timely fashion and then they came out with the good PR! Does anyone think the offering deal was put together in two days? My take is no and yes they presented all those news to those

[SPCEO1]

I can certainly understand the frustration but you do have a number of incorrect takes in your post. Nobody knows what the company may or may not say or when, we are all just making educated guesses based onthe available evidence and our best understanding of it, which could easily prove incorrect.  No large shareholders had any idea ahead of time about the specifics of that horrible share

[jfm1330]

The myth of the supposedly awful financing is perpetuated here. It was certainly a frustrating dilution, but we are almost a year later and still without the meaningful news that is needed to push the SP higher. So it is foolish to think that this financing was not necessary and that it would have been possible to make it with much less dilution. This is pure wishful thinking that does not want to

[SPCEO1]

That was a pretty good post with the exception of your assumptions about the ONO. You act like we did not discuss the need for a financing round here before it happened. It was obvious it was needed and that really was not disputed to any great degree. The issue was on the actual substance of the deal, which was atrocious (the price, warrants, broker used to get it done), and on the timing of it

[jfm1330]

You assume that a better deal was obviously possible, but there is no proof of that. It is finance fiction and we will never know for sure because in life only one story is written and alternative facts don't exist. I am not telling you a marginally better deal would have been impossible, but not a really better one. But, hey, personnally I think these guys in the management and on the board

[SPCEO1]

I agree a buyout is not the most likely scenario right now but I would not be shocked if a larger pharma took a serious stake in TH as a way of laying claim to it early in case things work out well on the cancer and/or NASH front.It does not take too much ingenuity to conclude that larger pharma may be the very cashed flow positive Pfizer that has a zillion connections already to TH but, who knows

[palinc2000]

Of course they will be talking about the business but will not be asking for advice on how to RUN the business...,,,,,

[SPCEO1]

I suspect if THTX does not have something notable they have already announced prior to those meetings with larger sharehodlers who are already disgruntled, they will get some unsolicited advice at those meetings on how to run their business regardless of whether they are  asking for it!

[realitycheck4u]

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[SABBOBCAT]

Oh no, Phillipe is there... all current shareholders should go pick up some KY because they are about to get eff'd.  Jokes aside, if there are no public scientific developments in the next week, then it will be a funding meeting. My guesses (in no paticular order) would be: Warrant/rights offering to current shareholders with an 8-12 month expiry to extend runway for cancer. Not

[SPCEO1]

I think the suggestions you have made below all have a very low probablity of actually happening.   Any fundraising is dilutive (except in the case where it is funding an anti-dilutive acquisition - a very rare situation and not one you are contemplating). Warrants or rights might be fairer to current shareholders than last years ONO but I can't see that happening to fund cancer

[jeffm34]

On the other hand, underwhelming results will tank the stock price.  Most prudent companies wouldn't take that risk.  Unfortunately the timing for another financing is most likely before cancer results come out, unless you are 100% certain of the outcome of the cancer trial.  

[SPCEO1]

Let's see what the phase 1a results are first. If they show efficacy then the stock might rise considerably in the months ahead leading to the offering. Then again, there may be cash flowing to TH from partnerships so that may obviate the need for an offering.

[jeffm34]

If the company does have a good news, how long are they allowed to sit on it for before making it public? The longer they sit on it the more likely the information gets leaked and you get insiders trading on that information. When did the company first reach out to set up those meetings?

[SPCEO1]

I don't remember exactly but I think it was a week or two before Christmas. Assuming they have good news they don't have to share it until it is official. So, if they had a deal to partner on something that was already negotiated and was just waiting for board approval, it would not be official until the boards approved it. TH may know that is just a formality and they would know the date

[jeffm34]

A restructuring perhaps?  Stock consolidation before a new stock issue. Trying to gauge shareholder reaction before contemplating? 

[SPCEO1]

TH has spoken about Chinese interest in partnerring in cancer, is seeking a partner in NASH and mentioned "inbound interest" on cancer, presumably from Western pharma companies. These are the most likely scenarios but there could be many others too, including scenarios with bad news or mixed news. Some limited restructuring might be possible (sell Trogarzo rights to Viiv, rename the

[longterm56]

Is it likely that a public announcement would be before or after the meeting(s) with large shareholders? -LT

[SPCEO1]

Definitely before, assuming that we are correct about what might be up, and we might not be.