Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

The phase 1a trial has already been de-risked

[SPCEO1]

Not totally, of course, but meaningfully. The confidence of the management team at the shareholder meetings last week and the hiring efforts both give strong indications that when we finally do hear what the company has seen in the phase 1a, we will likely be pleased. The addition of Dr. Rothenberg continues to be one of the most important "tells" of them all. 

Now, we simply have to wait to hear the details and we do not know exactly how long of a wait we are facing. But assuming the news is good on the phase 1a as we expect, the next question will be whether any other investor are actually paying attention to anything TH is doing other than those of us on this board. My confidence falls sharply on that issue. I cannot make much of a case for TH's stock to get a great reception from investors generally if they report really compelling phase 1a data. Hopefully, I am wrong about that but, while there is evidence that good things are happening in the phase 1a trial, I have not seen any evidence yet that Wall Street is engaged with TH. Besides ourselves, there does not seem to be a large number of investors anxiously anticipating the results and TH does not seem to be doing anything to change that. 

So, the phase 1a has already been de-risked but the risk that any good or reat results coming from that trial get mostly ignored remains way, way too high.

[jfm1330]

As you know, I am a firm believer that the quality of results will modulate the stock price. That being said, we need to stay realistic. Unless they would have really spectacular results on some patients, like complete responses, which is very unlikely, the SP will not go crazy even with clear efficacy and a proof of concept. Look at Sutro, they already have this early efficacy results and their

[palinc2000]

Moving the goal posts!!! Week after week!!! LOL  

[scarlet1967]

I don’t think STRO’s market cap is relevant to THTX. They don’t seem to have a commercial operation, they already have licensed out the rights for many of their drugs’ to various companies etc. As per the early efficacy results from the phase1a trial it was a disappointment at least that’s how the market interpreted it, they lost almost 30% of their market value since the announcement of the

[Wino115]

I don't disagree, but I did notice that Sutro recently disappointed with one of their FolRa targeted ovarian ADCs and the stock fell a bunch.  It's a $500mil market cap now, but was between $1-1.5bil when things were looking better for them.  I'll take either case now! We may get lucky and one or two of the current Cheeto munchers could finally realize they have an actual

[Wino115]

It will be an indication if any of the conferences and investor calls PL, Dubuc and marsolais have done over the last 4-5 months will pay dividends for shareholders. If they were able to get 15-20 interested investors who just want to see POC, we may be surprised. I'm just hoping for a $5-7 handle as the 1b ramps up and then go from there. Their calls may get it there as opposed to any of the

[jeffm34]

Why do you think they will see any signs of efficacy from the phase 1a trial ? A fair number of patients in the trial will have been under dosed, most will likely not have high sortlin expressing cancers, and these are patients with the most advanced cancers that have run out of other options.  I think people need to be a bit more realistic in their expectations from this part of the phase 1

[CreatingApe]

What about the 7 mil shares traded and the 40 % jump (that scaled back completely) on the day when the data on mice was released. People are aware but no one else is reading the tea leaves as closely as we are. When the human data is released, if it shows efficacy and safety at a high dose.. we are going to see another 10 mil shares traded and a serious bump in valuation.

[jfm1330]

We all know that phase Ia is not designed to produce the maximum efficacy results. At the same time, the FDA forced Thera to take all comers in the trial in order to show if efficacy is related to sortilin expression. So it seems that FDA thinks that even though this trial is designed to understand safety parameters, that it will likely also show be able to show efficacy. Obviously, this is not

[Wino115]

Barring any clear sign of efficacy, I would take data around the proof of concept -- the SORT1 target is valid, the peptide affinity is valid, SORT1 is internalizing it, it is not being repeled, it appears the linker works, it appears metasticizing was stopped,  etc...  From what I've learned here, some of that may be implied by the data and some of that "internal cellular"

[qwerty22]

The problem is that outside of the efficacy signal, shrinking tumours or a validated biomarkers in some cancers, the other things you talk about are pretty challenging to show. Maybe close to impossible. Stable disease is fine but I'm not sure what it tells you over a relatively short period of time. The rest is more challenging.