Post by
SPCEO1 on Feb 25, 2022 11:38am
Any comments on this from Leede's Doug Loe?
Thera provided an update on its Phase I solid tumor testing with TH-1902, indicating that it has likely identified a maximum (barely) tolerable dose that is at or above 420 mg per square meter of body surface area, and this observation motivated the decision to shift all future patient dosing to a lower level of 300 mg/m2. Thera indicated that this represents a 1.5x elevated dosing level over that commonly used for docetaxel itself in solid tumor chemotherapy, but in our review of the literature, it is far higher than that (docetaxel as a monotherapy tends to be administered initially in most tumor types at 75-to-100 mg/m2). Accordingly, we believe that dosing at or above 300 mg/m2 still reflects favorably on the tumor targeting pharmacology that conjugation to sortilin receptor-binding peptides confers in TH-1902. As stated above, the concept of incorporating sortilin biochemistry into TH-1902 for targeted chemotherapy still seems reasonable to us and we are optimistic that justification for us to ascribe formal market value to this program will be forthcoming.
Comment by
qwerty22 on Feb 25, 2022 12:21pm
It does sound like he's mis-understanding that but given he doesn't state his own multiple it's hard to say. It could just be that he thinks by picking 100mg/mm2 that THTX are at the cautious end of this equivalent estimate. Does it say what he thinks the multiple is anywhere else in the report?
Comment by
SPCEO1 on Feb 25, 2022 12:38pm
He did not make any further comments of note about cancer in the report.
Comment by
jfm1330 on Feb 25, 2022 5:39pm
Correction. So you lost most of the theoretically widened therapeutic window based on preclinical data, and got nothing at this point on proof of concept.
Comment by
scarlet1967 on Feb 27, 2022 3:38pm
No point to argue with him, he simply ignores all the other pieces of the technology and falsely link everything to the MTD. Why would the company add more patients to phase1b if their therapeutic window had no chance showing efficacy? Why would Chinese companies be interested? Are all those scientists absolutely clueless?
Comment by
SABBOBCAT on Feb 27, 2022 4:10pm
I think JFM is adding some caution into the overall optimisim on this board and appreciate the thought and insight.
Comment by
Lee430 on Feb 28, 2022 12:41pm
Could it be that Thera is simply holding back as much info as they are allowed to until they have the new IR hire in place and have developed a plan to maximize the impact?
Comment by
qwerty22 on Feb 28, 2022 2:02pm
I think you have to think there are a number of factors that go into how and when you release the info. Financing is one consideration for sure. Doing it the right way is another. To me the right way is when things become hard data points and when you can put enough facts together to tell a supportable story. We just aren't at that point yet.
Comment by
juniper88 on Feb 26, 2022 10:52am
I have another thought why the FDA wanted all comers for the safety portion of the trial. What happens when TH1902 works really well and tumors shrink significantly? Obviously, now sortilin expression will be much lower. So, having screened out lower sortilin expressing patients would tell you nothing of the safety for the patients that have a good response.
Comment by
SPCEO1 on Feb 25, 2022 12:42pm
That was all he really said about TH-1902. This analyst's financial analysis capabilites have been historically weak so Iusually do not focus on his earnings models. He was low on his Egrifta sales estimate and high on Trogarzo for 2021. He is projecting $79.8 million in revenues for 2022 and $89.6 in 2023.