Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Cash position

[jeffm34]

Now down to 12 month cash runway. Cash required in next financing will be at least $100M to look after the convert and finance the phase 1b/2 cancer trials.  (Any licensing deals could be a potential source of up front cash as well) The race now is can they can get any meaningful trial data before the next offering? Someone mentioned on the call that efficacy data could be available towards the end of the year. If that is the case as opposed to what Paul said, then we are in trouble. Remember last year at this time and you all were saying we'd see efficacy data by the summer of 2021. I think it's safe to say your predictions on how fast this company moves are wildly optimistic.  I'm hoping we might see something by Q3 but that might be too optimistic as well. Regardless, who is going to buy any significant amount of TH stock knowing a major dilutive financing is coming at any moment ? The delays in the phase 1a trial will likely mean the offering is done near todays prices and not $5+

[Wino115]

I think they have a number of options still and which path they choose comes down to timing and some efficacy signs.  I would have to re-listen, but I think in the Q&A on the question about how "soon to market" would accelerated approval work, the response said something about announcing any early efficacy signs, meaning they wouldn't wait until the end of the basket trial

[SPCEO1]

My best guess is we get the debt deal done sometime realtively soon and any new equity financing after preliminary signs of efficacy in phase 1b and after any partnership deals are done. We may not need a lot of equity sold, maybe even none, depending on the size of the debt deal, the status of the NASH trial and the cash raised in partnerships. We may only need an equity deal to get coverage from

[SPCEO1]

There is lots to unpack in your post - I will give it a try and hope that proves helpful to your understanding. See my comments in red below: As I said, I would be surprised if there is not an equity component but that might come much later after more data is available and the stock price is higher. I also wonder if they might negotiate with the convertible holders to restructure it.

[jeffm34]

Does anyone have any recent examples of what a debt financing of this size might look like for a company at this stage with no profitability to cover that debt. They could find takers to do a debt financing but I'm afraid of it being death spiral debt. 

[SPCEO1]

Yes, I posted about it several weeks ago as the CEO mentioned in a call I was on that a friend of his who was a CEO of another company had just done a $100 million debt finaning and the stock responded by jumping 35%. I forget the name of the stock at the moment but if you look back at my posts from a few week's back you could find it. The fact that TH would be willing to do such a debt

[SPCEO1]

The stock symbol of the company I was referring to is URGN in case you want to check it out. It is  a biotech of roughly the same size as TH with about the same amount of sales (although the growth profile of those sales is supposed to be higher than TH's).

[qwerty22]

I think more clearly than ever they've pushed efficacy to 1b. That tends to suggest to me they haven't yet seen the hints of efficacy that they might hope will turn into a solid reportable data point in the short term. If it's going to appear then it can happen with any enrolled patients so we still can't rule out 1 of these last 6 patients will be responders but it doesn't

[qwerty22]

Just curious Anybody know what the record Q sales for Egrifta are? It used to be given in CAD, this Q is ~14mil CAD, that look like it's near the top end.

[SPCEO1]

TH has already hinted about hints of efficacy with patient #2. I think what they are saying is there might not be the scientifically defined preliminary signs of efficacy until phase 1b. I do not think they are saying they have no reason to believe the drug actuallty works in humans as a result of the  phase 1a trial. Basically, everything I have heard or seen from the company and others

[qwerty22]

I have to disagree with you about #2. Just being on the trial for x months is not proof of anything. I recently read that PFS in late-stage ovarian cancer is about 5-6 months without treatment. That's to say it can naturallly take that length of time for tumours to grow by 30%. Just hanging on for that length of time is no proof a drug is working, not even a hint. If one patient stretch's

[SPCEO1]

Why do you think they put that info in the corporate presentation about patient #2. They had it for a long time and only put it in the presentation recently. What might be the reason for including that info now? Now, they have defintely not told us anything about patient other than that this patient has had at least four cycles of treatment and probably a lot more than that. Is it possible this

[jfm1330]

That's a lot of hinting don't you think? And again, you can see what you want in patient #2 . If that's a hint of efficacy, it's a very weak hint. You don't base an investment decision on that.

[scarlet1967]

It's worth remembering these are late stage cancer patients with less than 6 months of life expectancy often the last month or two they come of drugs due to wide spread metastasis and drug side effects so although it's not directly related to efficacy if they have been on the drug for a longer period of time for one the drug has good safety profile and secondly it might have extended their