Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Yet more on the meeting with management

[SPCEO1]

There was some discussion around the financing issue. They know they need to assure the market they can handle the possible redemption of the convert in order to attract investors to the stock. So, some sort of financing is going  to happen sometime soon. It sure sounded like the debt option is still the main one on the table but I really do not have a firm idea of what they might be up to here. Maybe there is something quite creative on the financing front but it more likely just going to be a sizable debt deal so the market can see they have the funds to redeem the convert if needed in June 2023. They are not burning through much cash and still have enough to run the cancer trial plus some extra. But, biotechs need to have a healthy cash balance to be treated right by investors. I asked if they were to do a debt deal would they also get analyst coverage along with that and I got a very confident affirmative reply. So, maybe the calvary will finally arrive on the analyst front.

On the China partnership deal front, it seems both TH and the Chinese companies are now more interested in waiting for the preliminary efficacy data before moving forward since it is so close at hand. TH is interested in waiting as they want to attract top tier Chinese biotechs to the deal and preliminary efficacy signals will help with that. It will be interesting to see what amount of cash upfront payment might be realized from this potential source. Paul said the interest in a partnership is "as good as it gets" but I suspect the salesman in him was coming out (like when Italy's pricing decision for Trogarzo was a good indicator for the rest of Europe or that there was partnership interest in NASH - CEO's have to say such things but they are half truths at best). Hopefully, anything they might be able to structure on this front will not ultimately come back to bite them.

On NASH, the revised protocol is almost done and they expect no surprises there, so it should be as they have already talked about. Of course, NASH is still temporarily mothballed due to t he water issue (the one plant that produces this water is in India and run by Pfizer) He indicated they are still committed to NASH but one has to wonder how strong the committment is at this point. He is still counting on good MDGL results late this year to stir up interest in NASH among potential financial partners again. I will believe that when I see it. He said TH had done an market study for Egrifta in NASH and got good results from the field about the potential interest in Egrifta for NASH.  

Paul again stated that Egrifta sales are rebounding nicely post covid and post the  sales force internalization. I will be amazed if they meet their guidance for fiscal 2022 but they are at least off to a good start. Not much was said about Trogarzo sales in the US.

That's about it - hope that helps.

[qwerty22]

Are you suggesting they will come to some new arrangement for the convertible early before then going on to the financing for the trial?  

[SPCEO1]

They said they have enough money to complete the phase 1b and then some. They need to address the convertible because institutional investors see it looming in the distance with no apparent way for TH to pay it off, so they move on without buying the stock. So, if I understood things correctly, they will do what most likely will be a debt financing to show they can pay the convert off when it

[scarlet1967]

“10 cycles”! That is quite a statement. So overall good tolerability. Would they aim for such prolonged treatment for late stage cancers if they had serious/even less serious adverse effects so far? What else can this possibly mean, good on target/off target delivery ratio (better affinity to the sortilin)? Higher intracellular concentration of the docetaxel (by passing the efflux and less free

[SPCEO1]

This is no doubt why Soleus was so taken by TH-1902 very early on. Better efficacy and longer treatment time. It is a powerful combination as long as there are no other offsetting factors that have either not arisen yet or havhe not been revelaed yet. The AACR could be very interesting for us as that is most likely when we will hear things of this nature. 

[Wino115]

There could also be a creative way to match up a future partner in China with the convert redemption. Have the partner provide the funds for a stake of x% or a convert/equity deal - something along those lines. Or you may even be able to convince them to redeem the convert, take a similar convert with lower rate, $10 strike and 3 years.

[palinc2000]

Not sure I follow you .. Cash needs are as follows 55Million $ to redeemthe Convert PLUS x million$$ to fund the clinical trials  Are you proposing that we get the Chinese to invest 55 million $ plus X  What would they get in return? 30% of the company  or more ???  

[SPCEO1]

THsaid the other day they do not need cash to fund the current trials in the next year. And I suspect they believe their share price will be much higher than it is now sometime in the next year, making raising cash via equity much easier. Now, we all know the typical biotech tends to hold much more cash than is needed, so I would not be surprised if TH does add additional cash to the curent

[scarlet1967]

“Trodelvy was administered as an intravenous infusion once weekly on Days 1 and 8 of 21-day treatment cycles at doses of 10 mg/kg until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. Among the 795 patients treated with Trodelvy, the median duration of treatment was 4.1 months (range: 0 to 59 months). In this pooled safety population, the most common (≥ 25%) adverse reactions were neutropenia (61%),

[palinc2000]

  I think Nash can be a value driver both short term (upon partnering)and medium term(interim take on efficacy vs futility. I have been much too optimistic on the delay to land a partner but I dont think the company should capitulate at every roadblock....THTX is a miniscule company and any positive event has a major impact on value creation..... This is also why revenue from product

[SPCEO1]

On NASH, there are clearly no partners willing to give TH what it wants so far. Perhaps the new  protocol will change that (they may have requested the changes at the behest of a potential partner) and we will get a positive surprise, but I am not counting on that.   One of the other shareholders on the call brought up the need for additional products for the salespeople to sell

[jeffm34]

I think Taimed can find a new European partner.   It is an expensive proposition for Theratechnologies to set up the infrastructure just to sell one drug in multiple European countries. There will be companies that have a salesforce already in place that see physicians that specialize in HIV. Their cost to sell Trogarzo would be much lower.  Likewise in the US it doesn't really cost