Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Addressable market

[scarlet1967]

 

As per company's CP. 

Over 800 k patient are currently treated with ART in the US some 3.6 percent (over 30 k) of treated patients are heavily treated. Addressable market estimates at $240m. The drugs currently used for HTE cohorts failing their regimen are ibalizumab, Rukobia and Sunlenca often together.

This data gives an incentive for doctors and patients to include ibalizumab in that addressable market. The question is whether they can convince doctors to change the heavily treated patient's regimen to much more efficient ibalizumab before the viral failure based on this real world data? 

[Trogarzon]

By incentive you mean $$$.  . 

[palinc2000]

Great news today  

[stephanedodier]

I am happy with this news but I was expecting another news.... on TH-1902 !   we are still in the first week of May... maybe tomorrow.

[SPCEO1]

The Trogarzo news is unambigously good news but, like you, I am looking more so for the PR on the resubmission of TH-1902 to the FDA. But we heard earlier, that THTX does not intend to put a PR out on that. I assume they will not be able to avoid the subject at the AGM next week, so we should hear then. If not, we will have to wait until they ehar back from the FDA, which I am certain they would

[SPCEO1]

I am sure the THTX sales team is really happy to have this data in their pocket now. It is clearly good news for Trogarzo and the stock seems to be reflecting that in premarket trading inthe US - up 13%

[palinc2000]

The elusive total sales of 100 million $ is coming soon and will do wonders to the Company s ability to stay alive and grow much beyond most expect   

[qwerty22]

In the bottom corner of the poster it says study sponsored by theratech. I'm going to guess this is the brainchild of the CMO or CEO. Great value adding work by the looks of it, hopefully more evidence for clinicians to reach for the drug. You'd have to think in a scenario where you have a difficult keeping a patient virally suppressed that evidence of long term stability from a drug is a

[Wino115]

Credible science facts can work with doctors, it's really the only way. So this is very credible and small incremental demand has a large effect given the lowish revenue numbers now. But I think if they can combine this efficacy and duration news with the IM "simple at home" version coming up, then you can really get some additional sales arguments in front of doctors and patients

[LouisW]

Your "simple at home" comment really interests me. Are you saying IM can be performed at home by themself? Patients no need to go to hospital?

[SPCEO1]

Yes, I believe that is correct. And it could prove very helpful to sales but it is still hard to beat a pill even then. That data reported yesterday, however, if THTX is able to communicate it effectively to doctors, may be enough for patients to be willing to take the Trogarzo shot over competing pills. But don't expect immediate results on the Trogarzo sales front as it will take time for

[palinc2000]

You have doubts about THTX being able to cummunicate effectively to doctors!!!!!!! Are you serious?

[Trogarzon]

After Trogarzo's glorious approval back in 2018 the rethoric was that every 1000 new partiens would equal 100M of market cap. We are 5 years later at what steady eddy 300 or so patients.  It's a game of $$$, Thera has lots oif dept and no money to do well in the pharma business.  It's a world of brown enveloppes and kickbacks.  This is the way and meritt does'nt

[Trogarzon]

That's why I think they need to sell the company to a deep pocket comany to improve sales of their producs.  They have no money left after the debenture gets paid next month. Otherwise like our Chairwomen supposibly said Th1902 is the key to higher stockprice.  No that's a hail mary in my book. Shure go ahead put the house on number 1902 and pray.

[SPCEO1]

They will not be out of cash but they will be in an uncomfortable spot with cash. I am guessing they will have less than $20 million in cash starting in July ($29 million to start Q2, $3 million in estimated Q2 negative cash flow, $1 million in estimated negative June cash flow, $20 million loan from Marathon and $28 million in estimated principle and interest payments on the convert leaving them

[SPCEO1]

There are FDA restrictions on what they can use in their sales ptiches - I am not sure yet if they will be able to use this directly or only indirectly when they are speaking with doctors. I suspect they will be able to use it directly but since THTX  sponsored the work, maybe that makes it less usable as it is viewed as biased? Maybe they can only refer to it va their MSL's in teaching

[scarlet1967]

External Comparison of Ibalizumab in Trials vs. Other Regimens in OPERA - Full Text View - ClinicalTrials.gov The trial was conducted by a third party! "Sponsor: Epividian Collaborators: Theratechnologies FIECON Information provided by (Responsible Party): Epividian"  

[SPCEO1]

As qwerty pointed out yesterday, it was funded by THTX (see bottom right of the  poster). I am not sure what the rules are regarding using data from something like this for sales efforts or how doctors might react to it (if they even are aware of it since most will not likely read the  poster). Ideal data comes from studies where the company had very little to do with it. Clearly, a drug

[jfm1330]

I don't agree with that, most drugs are approved based on studies sponsored by the owner of the drug, and results are not seen as biased. There are ethics rules involved and breeching them would equates to a fraud. I am sure Thera would not do that. We can complain about many things about them, but they are not in the Cytodyn category of small biopharma companies.

[SPCEO1]

Also, if THTX can use that study in its marketing of Trogarzo and it starts to be successful, you can be sure the competing products will be pointing to their sponsorship of the study to undermine its credibility.

[scarlet1967]

      I am sure the competitors do what they have to trying to undermine the integrity of other's studies...I am not that sure it's going to be convincing enough as it would be hard to question this third party's credibility as OPERA (data base) from Epividian is used for various studies by various companies.  From PR: "Developed by

[jfm1330]

A patient cannot inject himself an intra-muscular drug. I had IM injections every month for the last seven years and it had to be performed by a nurse, either at home, or in a clinic. I recently switched to another injectable drug which is given by what they call deep subcutaneous injection. The injection site is on the side of the hip/buttock. I was given the choice to learn to do it myself or to

[SPCEO1]

Thanks for that clarification as I had a brain freeze and thought IM was SC. Sorry that you are reminded of the difference every month but glad to see you posting here still. Hopefully, there will be more TH-1902 stuff to post about in the not too distant future and I am trusting your health remains stable or improving.

[Joemare]

I must say it's news. It's all about the penetration rate, 25% of that market within 12-18 months. Good news today. 

[scarlet1967]

          They are also conducting another trial(promise) comparing heavily treated patients with and without Trogarzo. If the results are favourable that would be definitely very helpful to convince doctors and patients including Trogarzo in earlier line of treatments which is much bigger(as per company's estimates 30 plus thousand)market to

[SPCEO1]

Replying to Scarlett, I would love to believe that Trogarzo could play a role in treatment above the last ditch MDR market, but it does not seem like the study you are referring to suggests that this is what they are looking at. Clearly, the patients receiving Trogarzo will be MDR patients. Those not receiving it I am not sure about but am guessing they are also MDR patients. Perhaps you know that

[scarlet1967]

If you look at the groups(both MDR) one is HTE without Trogarzo and the second group is HTE with Trogarzo. As of now Trogarzo is prescribed to salvage group of patients which have failed all previous regimen. The purpose of this study is to show the therapeutic benefits of Trogarzo in earlier lines of treatments so basically if successful they have a good argument to make convincing doctors and

[scarlet1967]

Heavily treated patients still have two or three different classes of antivirals to choose from if Trogarzo shows therapeutic benefits it makes a good contender.