Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Fair Value

[juniper88]

After the dust has now settled, and with the spirit of looking forwards instead of backwards.  Does anyone want to take a stab at what ought to be the fair value of THTX right now?

Market cap seems to be just under USD 60 million, right now.  Is that too high? Too low?  Why?

[Trogarzon]

The saying goes that you're only worth as much as your last deal.  That would be 1$ or 0.25$ for those who were celebrated for their patience last month.  A penny stock in disguise near it's 2014 all time low worth a 50% dilution.  It's clear in my mind it's dilute until fluke or flop mentality now from a non dilutive one just a year ago.  Also went from an

[palinc2000]

t As I recall you always were of the opininion that THTX should be valued at at least  3 times sales..That woukd be  about 250 milliuon USD ...Of course the Marathon debt makes the calculations a bit blurry and no value is assigned to the pipeline Moreover I dont think IQ would have invested  12,5 million USD if the minimum  expected return was not much much higher than the

[Trogarzon]

They want to celebrate IQ and their investement and finger us all the more in the process.  Well thise IQ guys probably have more freebies coming their way in 24 months once they burned trought the cash they just raised and need more.

[palinc2000]

I dont have enough info  nor the time to estimate next fiscal year EPS ...taking into account the downsizing of the R&D and other non recurring expenses plus an increase in Revenues hopefully close to or exceeding 100 million ....apply a multiple of 10 to 15 and that would be fair value without adding value if any in the pipeline    

[Trogarzon]

Get me 8$+ in a takout pls....

[Mannequin]

I suspect they have a partner waiting for news of 1902 and if so, we will have a partner. We could still get to a $20B value with a 'platform' that does work and has numerous indications, but we've just been diluted massively, so the upside is big, just not as big.  So what will the total share count be after the additional allotment fills?

[SPCEO1]

Assuming cash of $48 million, which is likely a bit generous, Marathon debt of $60 million and a market cap of $62 million currently, the Enterprise Value (EV) is $74 million (Market cap plus net debt of $12 million). Sales are likely to be around $85 million in 2023. EV/Sales below 1X is obviously quite cheap. It is hard to know how to value THTX on this metric at this point given management'

[juniper88]

So far as we know, right now only 1 patient has been enrolled in the TH1902 trial.  I don't see how this trial will show any promise any time soon with this enrollment rate.

[Trogarzon]

The most encouraging fact is that Soleus doubled down and from what I understand they are very knowledgeable in cancer.  Msot analyst are worthless apart from Andre Udin in my book.

[Trogarzon]

A deal to pitch in on the new 365/380 Taimed first line med would be awsome.  It would put my soul to rest regarding Thera.

[SPCEO1]

More likely, they have multiple patients on board, just not six yet. They announced the first and will likely announce the sixth but we are left guessing iin between. There are three certainties in life - death, taxes and drug trials taking longer than management forecast.