Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Murky sales report imo

[palinc2000]

Why dont they break down the sales report with the end  demand  from partients  and variations (plus or minus) in inventories in the sales channels
Gloating  over 49% increase in Egrifta sales where most of the increase it seems is purely inventory replesnisment .....Why keep everybody guessing by not providing exact metrics
They have covered their behind by adding"
moving forward we expect sales to align with patient demand now that inventory levels have returned to normal"
Not man enough to be fully transparent ..... 
I am open to  hearing arguments proving that I am  reading this wrong

[juniper88]

How is this different from any other quarterly report in the last 10 years? The only way for us to know if the increase is "real" is if it continues over the next few quarters.  Overall the quarter wasn't bad if they are not doing any inventory manipulation.

[Trogarzon]

Got some hope back today. They delivered a good Q2 and reinstated guidance. Still bullish on the sortilin platform.  The CEO sounded genuine and actually mentioned working for all shareholders. I liked what I saw and heard today.

[Mannequin]

This is unfortunately a show me company. You showed me today. Good. Now show me again tomorrow.  They need to grow momentum now, or they will lose it.   

[Qwerty54321]

That's how I read it. Drawn to exactly the same sentence.  

[LouisW]

According to my valuable experience, they only disclose the seemingly positive part and hide the negative part which would mislead investors. 

[Mannequin]

What's the issue fellas? They reaffirmed guidance. 

[juniper88]

The issue is TRUST.  

[SPCEO1]

It would be amazing if they were able to maintain sales at the $22 million level seen in the 2Q as Palin suggested following the benefit from the inventory restocking. Also, they need to average $24.3 million in sales over the last two quarters in order to meet the low end of gudiance. Nothing they have shared would indicate we should expect two consecutive simultaneous record sales quarters

[palinc2000]

If you exclude the inventory restocking in the 2 nd quarter sales to patients in the 2 nd quarter were probably no more than  12 millions for Egrifta Assuming Trog sales are flat at 6 million per quarter in the next 2 quarters then Egrifta sales to patients need to increase to 18 millions in each of the next 2 quarters to reach the yearly guidance IF my calculations are correct then they

[juniper88]

The math is simple, I don't believe anyone needs to check it.   The question is are the inputs into the equation correct?  How did you come up with how much inventory restocking was done?  We just don't know. To me it is a matter or trust.  Do we now believe management that somehow they will get $24 million in sales in each of the next 2 quarters? And I don't

[palinc2000]

I meant math and assumptions.. I took  Egrifta historical revenues and trend  to make a wild guess May be others can offer better inputs  

[palinc2000]

Dubuc during the last  CC For the second quarter of fiscal 2024, net sales of EGRIFTA SV reached $16.2 million compared to $10.9 million in Q2 of last year, which represents a 49% increase year-over-year. Recall that Q2 2023 sales were negatively affected by inventory drawdowns. As mentioned previously, inventory levels have reverted to normal levels and should continue to be stable going

[juniper88]

So, if the new normal quarterly sales base was $16.2 million last quarter then Q3 could be $17 million and Q4 $17.8 million.  If Trogazo sale don't go down then Q3 and Q4 revenue could be about $23 and $24 million.  So, just falling short of guidance. But at least we're going in the right direction.  Of course, I could be misinterpreting Dubuc's statement.

[palinc2000]

You are right but how could the new nornal base sales be 16.2million? Connecting the dots to make 16.2 Million  is  where I have difficulty....  We will know in October when 3 rd Quarter Results are released...  

[juniper88]

I kinda take everything that management says with a grain of salt.  As I wrote earlier, the next couple of quarter will either confirm or deny what they are saying now.  My instinct says that the actual numbers will come in lower.  So, we seem to be on the same page.