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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

Alternate Symbol(s):  THTX

Theratechnologies Inc. is a Canada-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company is focused on the development and commercialization of therapies addressing unmet medical needs. It markets prescription products for people with human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) in the United States. The Company's research pipeline focuses on specialized therapies addressing unmet medical needs... see more

TSX:TH - Post Discussion

Theratechnologies Inc > Good deal or not?
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Post by scarlet1967 on Dec 04, 2024 5:28pm

Good deal or not?

 

Obviously THTX doesn't have any sale force in Canada so that has to be set up, cost unknown!!The reimbursements have to be negotiated with all provinces/territories individually, cost of the resources which are needed to be allocated dealing with the regulatory process is also unknown, as for the pricing of the drugs it will be as Wino posted some estimated 30 percent lower in Canada compared to the US, the prevalence of these conditions/size of the target markets are a bit of rather uncertain factors(based on the PR and what has been said by Ionis) and the company is now trying to commercialize none HIV related drugs. One also wants to know what are exactly the "tiered double-digit royalties"?

 

Olezarsen reduces the plasma triglycerides, treating both FCS and sHTG now as per THTX the prevalence of FCS is similar to the global population and as per Ionis's latest CC:

"The EPI for this is between 1 and 13 per million,which takes us in at most up to the 4,000 patient range in the US".

As per sHTG THTX estimated there are about 3 million patients in the US and a similar prevalence in Canada compared to a quick online search which estimates some 1.7 percent of the US population equivalent to 3.4 million people with the condition.

Again as per Ionis's latest CC:

"With significant first-mover advantage in both populations and compelling results already demonstrated in FCS, coupled with our expectation for similarly positive data in sHTG, we believe olezarsen could be the standard of care for both disease indications."

So they have very optimistic predictions!

As per Donidalorsen what I read is the drug "influence gene expression" treating a genetic and niche condition called Hereditary Angioedema which causes "recurrent episodes of severe swelling in various parts of the body, including the limbs, face, intestinal tract, and airway. This condition not only causes significant discomfort and pain but also poses life-threatening risks, especially when the swelling affects the airway.hereditary angioedema".

HAE's market seems to be crowded not only in the US but also in Canada so it all comes done to the efficiency of the drugs.

https://haecanada.org/approved-hae-treatments-in-canada/

The prevalence of the disease as per THTX:

"HAE (Type 1 and Type 2) has a combined estimated prevalence of approximately one in 50,000 people." and as per Ionis:

"HAE is a well-defined patient population with an estimated 20,000 people affected in the US and Europe, while prophylactic treatment in the US is well accepted by patients and physicians, the market continues to grow. Additionally, a meaningful segment of patients in the US are switching treatments seeking a better option".

The point is one cannot determine whether this deal is accretive or not but I hope a thorough feasibility due diligence has been done by the company. Personally I think diversity of the commercial products is a positive factor but again based on what we know and don't know only time will tell...

 

Comment by Lee430 on Dec 04, 2024 6:31pm
I am by no means qualified to judge this deal, however, it sure does not seems like the “Wait to be amazed” or “immediately accreditive using the existing sales force“ that we were promised……But hey Mr. Market likes it so therefore I like it.
Comment by Maxmoe on Dec 05, 2024 12:09am
hopeful its a cure for stupidity. Ill take two please
Comment by Lee430 on Dec 05, 2024 4:13pm
Just ran across this piece on the Ionis deal....Also noticed the the corporate presentation is still dated from April 2024 https://angioedemanews.com/news/company-plans-seek-canada-ok-hae-treatment-donidalorsen/
Comment by Qwerty54321 on Dec 05, 2024 4:24pm
Seems to be a lot about 'founder effect' in Quebec for FCS.  Syndrome de chylomicronmie familiale is the name in French. Lots of interest in this disease in research/charity/medicine. Maybe why Qc is investing in Theratech atm to encourage advance in treatment. Seems like a high conc of patients in Saguenay LSJ. Maybe doesn't need a massive sales team, very targeted, IDK?
Comment by Maxmoe on Dec 06, 2024 12:05pm
Or asked another way. How much if a sales "team" do you need if it's the only treatment available? 
Comment by Trogarzon on Dec 06, 2024 12:26pm
We'll know in two years if the 10 patients for this condition have private insurance...lol.
Comment by Qwerty54321 on Dec 06, 2024 1:38pm
I guess there are competing forces at play here. There is no treatment atm, so going from that base you have a lot to build visibility. But there seems to be a fairly interesting infrastructure around for other "founder effect" diseases in Quebec and presumably this infrastructure will kick in once a treatment is available for FCS. The strategy must be to focus on these populations with ...more  
Comment by Trogarzon on Dec 06, 2024 4:27pm
Hope we make it to monday without a 5pm PR scenario.
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