Taseko Mines Ltd T.TKO

new math

[nofluff]

So it has been said many times this was about florence getting built.
Also I think dc keeps saying it was 20% dilution. I come up with 15.

If it was 20 then I may as well forget this math as 20% of tko is all florence is worth. So please let us know how u got 20% dc.

I will use my 15% calcs and transfer all 2 florence. That will leave pre pp sh with full value on gib, ymi, np, and alley.

So the pp took 15% of florence from existing sh.
At 3.50 copper, gib is worth at least as much as florence.
So lets transfer tgat 2 florence. 

Existing sh have then sold 30% of florence.

We still have 3 other monster deposits shovel ready and proven. Kodiaks new discovery down the road is undrilled and unproven. But looks good. It us a one trick pony trading for 60 million dollars. 

So lets call each tko deposit worth 100 million for 300 million. 15% would b 45 million.

Transfer that to florence for jv money%. If 20% gets u 100 million then 45 million would b 10%.

So now everything has been transfered to florence and existing sh still have there full position in gib, ymi, np and alley.

So the 37 million pp seams to have bought 40% of florence. 

If we need 300 million cads to build plant then we have 37 million cads from pp to do it. 

Lets say we get 100 million for 20%.

That still leaves existing sh with 40% of florence. So now all sh have to come up with 163 million dollars yo complete the build. Either by bank cash or borrowed or stream. Lets hope it is not a stream.

Using todays price, the mine should generate tko 80% of about 163 million per year. So in a perfect world current sh would b debt free at florence and
getting about 30 cents per share earnings for a 4.50 cent sp increase.

Since we gave transfered pp cost all 2 florence current sh would recieve  about 80 cents earnings there for a 12.00 increase in sp. Total 16.00 sp.

Also 300 million insitiu value on 3 deposits would be another buck a share
for total of 17.00 a share.

So will it be a fly or a nuget in the ointment. If the pp was actually 20% then we sold all of florence. If we get much less than 100 million for 20% then same thing.

The nugget would be if we got more than 100 million for 20%.

I await answers to the unknowns.

nf

[nofluff]

So I left 5% on the table with yesterday 1.13 cent sell but am already up 15% on ame buy so net 10% in 1 day. Tko is not a bad holding corp.  nf

[JCSunsfan]

Fluff.  Your numbers all make perfect sense in a world where SP is actually tied to company fundamentals.  But with this company, the SP and fundamentals have been at a disconnect for a long time.  Thats why the PP was so low.  SP is low.  The PP was made at a 20% discount to present market SP and then 6% costs added on.  Man, that's expensive financing for SH

[JCSunsfan]

OK.  I am trying to answer my own question here.  I am a lender and TKO is asking for a loan to build out Florence.  I assume it would be bonds.  The new bond issue or loan would have to take out previous financing.  No new financing wants to be in second position to existing financing.  Bankers don't really care about market cap.  Shares out there don't

[JCSunsfan]

If there are discussions with FN about NP, and the PP was with the tribe, this would be a great move.   1.  Give the tribe a financial stake in the company at a discount through PP. Make them friends instead of adversaries. 2.  Promise them control of mine property after the mine is finished, and surrounding property during the lfe of the mine. 3.  Use the PP money from

[fishmillion]

JC.. the best scenario for tko would be to jv florence. Get 100 mill fot 75% stake... jv funds build with tko share out of prorated copper.. then jv operates it.. would be a great thing for us the shareholder.. kina like a peak mines senerio... a cash cow

[dheadley]

The price of the PP is the issue that has shareholders upset. Perhaps it was the best deal TKO could get. In other words the underwriters are valuing the company without the Florence permit.. Question for me is do we get a serious sell off if the permit is denied (a la NDM) or will it stay fairly stable.

[JCSunsfan]

The price of the PP is based upon sh value.  In a fast rising stock, there is risk.  I believe it was set at the 50 day moving average.  No one is going to buy the PP unless assurances are made about Florence.  The permit is going to be issue.  There is no real opposition to it and all the numbers have been hit. However, if it drags on, a new US Presidential

[nofluff]

Jc. That is exactly why I said wait. Why the pannick 2 sell on the cheap. Just run gib. Pour the money 2 the bank and when florence smoke settles build with cash. That said the 1.20 backstop 2day bodes well for a jump. Something us up. nf

[JCSunsfan]

One article gives the following potential reasons for diluting through PP.  Let's hope its #1. A company might take a dilutive investment round for any number of reasons: The new investors are strategically important, and worth offering a low stock price The company sold its stock at an unrealistic valuation before, and the new valuation is more reasonable The company

[nofluff]

Jc. That is spot on. Everyone saves face and no outright charity given. Np is in play. Makes tital sense. But underwriters r selling to there friends in this case.  Still. The last 2 million plus offering unbought goes 2 someone.  The underwriters had 30 days 2 decide on over allot. They took it down without a nites rest. Imagine 40% of florence for 35 million. So stuart and brian r

[KentWilkens]

NF, they sold at a 16% discount to market, (us .99 at close we'd) (or 20% depending which way your going) .83 us. Take another 6% off that for the finder's fee and actual price received is .78 USD per share. Float prior was 247,290,000 ish. They sold 31912500 shares at .78 Which represents 13% increase in float. On wed market cap is 244,817,100 USD. They sold 13% for net proceeds of 24,898

[nofluff]

Thanks kent. That makes me feel better. I just do the share to share math.  33 million shares total pp. On top of 240 million float is actually only 11% of corp. So my morning florence numbers improve to current sh retaining 50% of florence if jv pays 100 million for 20%. I can now live with that. Jv ir stream price will tell if we retained 50% or more or less. nf

[JoeStockIQ]

Remember, management has said numerous times over the past few months that negotiations pertaining to Florence J.V. and financing are far along in the process. Could Russ have cut a back room deal with potential suitors, either JV or financial, to get them some easy money from the PP knowing full well that Florence is a go due to their participation? Maybe. Could it be something similar? Maybe

[dcjones4396]

The share price fell from $1.01 US to 83 cents for an 18% decline in the stock price VALUE in one day, directly due to the announcement of the PP. I've said from day one that I didn't like nor understand why they decided to go that route. That said, what really matters to any shareholder at the end of the day? Pretty simple answer, only thing matters is the share price at any given time