Post by
PieEconomics on Aug 01, 2023 6:30am
Upon approval, $2.69 US floor?
On 12/20/22 after the Mitsui financing announcement, profittaker1 wrote: "The deal signals that Florence is worth $1B... By my math, TKO has gotta be worth 75% higher than this right now". At that time the price was $1.54/ sh US, which projected a fair value of $2.69 /sh US at that date. Upon approval, here are the influencing factors: (1) Those trapped in the stock will sell and Mitsui and others will buy at around that price. (2) Mitsui and ohter major financiers will offer financing at that price. (3) The company will strike a deal to finance with them at a higher price (how high?) now that the permit is no longer an uncertainty. (3) The iannouncement that the company might sell shares into the market was only a negociation tool, and will not be used. (4) Then, Florence or the company as a whole will become a buyout target at a yet higher price (how high?). I hope the company will discuss all these scenaios on Wednesday and that they are asked related questions.
Comment by
JCSunsfan on Aug 01, 2023 10:54am
I believe the Mitsui deal is contintent on permit approval so that uncertainty is already taken out of their consideration. The rest is accurate here.
Comment by
JCSunsfan on Aug 01, 2023 11:01am
I have considered $3 a fair value for Gib and a permitted Florence. Probably closer to $5-6 USD. With a fully operating Florence. That does not consider pipeline projects. In a dream situation, they work out something with the FN and sell 60% of it as part of the deal. They can take out their debt with that cash.
Comment by
nofluff on Aug 01, 2023 12:44pm
Sure hope u are correct jc. I have 9 thousand shares left. My swing to bwcg at 3.00 tko would have been happily done at .50 cent bwcg. That would b a 6 to 1. So 2.00 tko to .30 cent bwcg is a better swing. If I could c a 6.00 cad tko, it would b a nice treat to go right out next year. Happy hoping:)) nf
Comment by
JCSunsfan on Aug 01, 2023 3:33pm
I should have qualified what I said. Those are what I think are fair valuations. All too often the market disagrees with me.
Comment by
metalhead666 on Aug 01, 2023 7:07pm
Doubling down on stoopid is not a good investment thesis. it seams 4 sure
Comment by
slewfoot2 on Aug 01, 2023 9:01pm
well jc u seamed to have better posts when u simply copied stuff out of the that weakly periodical called the economist ... the post wearu attemp to think often r very pour and make no sense ... both ur methods add very little but the former is less anoying... ah... its gr8 2 b in copper... 4 sure