Yes, it's been awhile since we posted here. After selling the majority of our TGB shares, we've been focused on the overall markets. Taking the cash from the Taseko shares, we recently shorted the SPX, IWM, Capitol One (COF) and a few others. So far, it's worked out very well. Not crowing or boasting here because as we've mentioned numerous times in the past, our trio (along with our good buddy DC) are paid subscribers to Avi Gilburt's service that utilizes the Elliott Wave market analysis. He's been calling for the end of this nearly 100 year bull market since the beginning of this year, with an expected decade long bear market to come. Now, admittedly, it's taken longer to get here than he expected by several months but, as he says, bull markets don't go down easily. Important to note is that during this time, he was strongly advising NOT to open short positions YET. Then, he started raising the serious red flags a mere two weeks ago. Fortunately for us, we waited for those red alerts to begin our short positions (following his advice) and were able to catch the recent dive. Now, moving to today's rebound: In his nightly updates, he pegged this corrective rally (with the key word being 'corrective') and is now expecting another move lower very soon. Moving to the next caveat: the nature of the next market drop will determine when the next corrective rally comes, along with it's expected range. It's going to be a very bumpy ride over the next few months. Stating the obvious, remember!, large declines don't go in a straight line. There will be rallies along the way, giving time to restructure your portfolio. In our case, buying and selling put options. He also gives a small percentage chance of one more push higher before reaching its final top but the chances of that happening are significantly reduced at this point. That's why we pay this guy: we get daily updates as things change with intraday notifications during significant trading days.
Bottom line time! We're not asking anyone here to follow us or believe in Elliott Wave investing headed by a guru in the field that has established himself for 25 years. Do as you will, have at it and best of luck. As far as we're concerned, this is a public service announcement for whomever is interested. We pay good money for his advice and it's worked out very well for us. Be careful, be cautious! Significant downturns just might be right around the corner. Don't get into shorting markets and equities unless you know what you're doing because you need to be nimble on a daily basis opening and closing short trades.
As far as Taseko shares: we still love the future of this company but won't pick up more shares until the markets get beat up more. Anything under $2 US should be good for long term holders. Can't give you a number yet when we start buying again but when the day comes, we'll let you know.
Apologies for this somber update but this is how we view current conditions. Money can always be made in the markets, you simply need to be on the right side of the trade. Be cautious, be ready!