Taseko Mines Ltd T.TKO

A $10 stock....here's how

[metalhead666]

All rough back of the envelope calculations assuming everything pans out at Florence and Yellowhead goes into production....

Based on the feasibility studies, current price of copper and precious metals I figure that Florence and Yellowhead will combined equal a NPV of around $3 Billion. 

In production and at 1x NPV assuming not much share dilution that's 4x the current market cap or around $10 per share

This is a very rough guess. At $5 copper this number goes up a lot. Beyond $5 it goes up a real lot as all incremental sales go straight to the bottom line

Now Yellowhead isn't going to trade at 1x NPV until it's steady state production and that's a way off but just advancing the project and getting to a construction decision will unlock some of that $2 billion NPV 

New Prosperity has a feasibility study but it's way out of date. Doing some rough math on it though seems it should have a $2 to $3 Billion NPV  or about equal to Florence and Yellowhead combined.

If all these projects were up and running now you would have a $20 stock

This isn't likely to play out in my lifetime but it gives a sense of what kind of value is being unlocked now.

If Yellowhead gets a green light and NP becomes possible then these properties have real measurable value and the stock will get re-rated well ahead of actual production

I'm assuming current metal prices....if as many in the know people suggest...copper gets to $10 per pound in the years ahead then TGB could be a $40 to $50 stock

All of this is a lot of assuming but the point is...TGB is on the cusp of unlocking all this and although it will take many years for it all to happen, value is going to get created all along the way. This is why the stock jumped today...it's the first real clear sign in a long time as to how this could all unfold

I'm in for the long haul now...the reward of holding for several years and accumulating a meaningful position far outweighs the risk. Prior to today I was unsure and traded the ups and downs....I'm a lot more sure now in the wisdom of building a big stake and letting it unfold over several years.

[Crackle]

Agree with above, I believe there is a VERY real possibility of a buyout somewhere along the way.

[metalhead666]

Key to that is showing that both Yellowhead and New Prosperity can be brought into production. The big miners would be tripping over each other to own 4 producing mines in 1st world juristictions pumping out 600, 700 million lbs of copper per year at world class costs.  There isn't anything like it and if the lessons from Panama are taken seriously, every big mining concern is very