TLG's Feasibility Study will likely be released as expected sometime in Q1 2024. The estimated CAPEX number in that FS will probably be between $700M and $1B CAD, the majority of which will be financed via a debt facility coupled with an equity raise unless they partner with another entity in a joint venture agreement.
TLG's share price gets whatever bump the investment community decides to give it upon the release of the Feasibility Study (spoiler alert: nowhere near 1.20).
Share price then becomes range-bound as TLG goes through the financing / permitting / approvals process along with entering into agreements with the various contractors / suppliers needed before they can start building the mine.
Two possible share price catalysts during this period - that is, between the release of the Feasibility Study and the press release announcing that all financing / permitting / approvals have (or are about to be) completed and mine construction will begin (currently slated to occur at some point in 2025):
1) TLG is sold at whatever price per fully diluted share they can get from another entity (most likely an all-share deal). If so, it's unlikely shareholders will get any more than $1.00 per share, which would still be a good payoff for those whose average cost per share is under 50 cents. I personally doubt another company will buy TLG out during this time period, but it's possible....
2) The price of gold jumps significantly higher and the rising tide lifts all boats (nothing to do with TLG in particular, but rather the small / microcap gold E&P sector in general).
Possible threats to the share price during this same period:
1) Delays in securing the permitting / approvals.
2) The need for further financing over and above what the Feasibility Study originally projected.
3) I believe any joint venture TLG may enter into as an alternative to fully financing the project by itself right up to first pour would be a net negative re. the share price.
Let's see how right I am. Should be fun.