Troilus Gold Corp T.TLG

Questions For Potadvisor

[AlwaysLong683]

If TLG is such a steal at recent prices

 

1) Why do Management and other Insiders only own a combined 8% of the company which had a total current market cap of a mere $125M as of the end of November 2023 - "Shareholder Distribution on page 24 ("4") of TLG's December 2023 Slide Presentation...?

 

2) I checked both SEDI and CEO.CA . Why does it appear there's been no Management / Insider buying of common shares in recent months - only private selling of a whole whack of shares at 41.5 cents back in August? Surely insiders who know more about the inner workings of the company, its prospects going forward, and how to currently value it than EVEN Potadvisor himself can afford to buy at least 40,000 - 50,000 TLG shares at under 50 cents each...?

 

Compare the skin TLG's Managment and BOD currently have in the game to ARTG's who own 38% of the company.

 

3) If some on this BB like Potadvisor still don't get how the life cycle of a junior exploration company planning to engage in their first mine build typically works, TLG itself explains it for him if he'd only bothered to make it to page 17 of TLG's December 2023 slide presentation, as he would find that even TLG itself realizes that the share price is likely to hit another bump downward before rising again as they plow through the grind of obtaining all financing / permitting / approvals. That additional downward trajectory likely represents the time period right up to just before TLG obtains all financing / permitting / approvals and is just about ready to start construction of the actual mining operation (i.e., some point in 2025), But of course, stock market wizard Potadvisor plans on exiting at the end of 2024 for some reason, so chances are he'll miss out on the big run-up in the share price by ironically staying invested with dead money then exiting before the suspected big run-up in share price.

 

IMO, Potadvisor is far from the sharpest pencil in the drawer when it comes to investment strategy in this particular area of the gold E&P sector so as to maximize the probability that one will walk away with a handsome profit while avoding extended periods of dead money and/or declining share prices. What's worse, he doesn't seem to recognize that he doesn't know what he's talking about.

 

[crow27]

98% of investors always lose money. Why did TLG just go from .32 cents to .50 cents in the last couple months. Why are so many very negative and feel TLG is not a great buy at these low prices. Why will these same investors be stumbling over themselves to buy this stock at $2.00. I wonder why???? Does 98% of investors always lose money ring a bell? I'm in the camp that bought low and will sell

[Asdfghjk]

Take it from some random guy on a bb. 

[metalhead666]

8% ownership isn't nothing.  The reason to have bought on the recent slide was the catalyst of the FS due out soon. That's a significant milestone and should earn a re-rating higher which may well be in the price now. As you rightly point out, the financing is the next big hurdle which no doubt will see some dilution. That could go great if it's mostly a copper stream, royalty

[AlwaysLong683]

Metal, I suspect the initial pre-production capex as will be outlined in the upcoming FS will be between $700M and $1B. How they get to that number will likely be a debt facility for sure, at least one equty raise, and at least one streaming agreement. Atternatively, they could disappoint me and enter into a joint venture with another entity to share the wealth with like Osisko did with Gold

[metalhead666]

I can't see the cost being that high.  They need a mill...they don't need a tailings facility, power line, water treatment, camp....there's 500 million in infrastructure already in place. They will lease the trucks and shovels.  I go by the Lasonde Curve but that too is a moving target as every project is unique. Typically the best time to own em is once a construction

[AlwaysLong683]

SKE's Eskay Creek is also a brownfield project with lots of infrastructure already in place and its FS pegs initial pre-production CAPEX at $713M CAD. I think TLG's FS will come in at least $700M CAD - probably significantly more ($800M +...?).

[metalhead666]

TLG has significantly more infrastructure in place. The power line and sub station, a camp, a pit already dug, a water treatment plant.  Time will tell but I'll bet it's significantly less than what SKE is modeling

[AlwaysLong683]

Possible, but I'll stick with TLG coming in at the higher initial CAPEX estimate. SKE's Inherited Infrastructure Summary - pages 5 and 13. TLG's Inherited Infrastructure Summary - page 28.