Troilus Gold Corp T.TLG

I'll Likely Make A Big One-Time Purchase Of TLG Shares....

[AlwaysLong683]

.........sometime between January and June of 2025 if things progress the way the company is expecting them to over the next 12 to 18 months.

Current shareholders: Enjoy whatever bump you may get when the FS is released. Then we'll see if the share price holds up (spoiler alert: I doubt it).

[rdy2rumble]

Best news yet.. Talk to you in a YEAR then..

[metalhead666]

It will hold up but I understand you're thinking. TLG is insanely cheap here.  This Sprott note is a year old but the thinking and valuation is valid. At 0.2 x NAV it's worth close to $2 CDN.  The headwind after the FS will be financing but given the copper it might be better than one thinks if the bulk of it is a stream or royalty.   https://sprott.com/media/6311

[crow27]

I like your timeframe, by then you will be buying my shares at around $2.50 which is exactly what 99% of traders will do. Thanking you in advance  $$$$

[Potadvisor1]

Crow, if that always WRONG is to buy my shares at that price, he had better have MORE than $5 MILLION in his kitty. LOL My bet is, that guy would be lucky if he could buy $ 1 thousand shares at that price. I certainly would NOT hold my breath selling any to a mouthpiece with no money. We will have plenty takers once $2.50 is achieved and will make HUGE RETURNS. Loving it. 

[AlwaysLong683]

metal, if you currently own TLG shares, hope you make a good buck when the FS is released (I think you like to move in and out of names a number of times - but that's not my style).....the share price may have some juice in the aftermath of the release, but then as you know, the hard work starts re. permitting / contracting / financing which does not bode well for the SP even if the FS shows

[metalhead666]

Your points are all valid and yes, I do move a lot of stock with the volatility.  I have small core positions that I trade around as I'm too nervous to make any large bets on anything. So far it's been working for me but I won't have any bragging rights for hitting any homeruns. I just don't have the risk tolerance like I used to.  I understand your following the Lasonde

[AlwaysLong683]

True a rising tide should lift all boats if the POG surges significantly higher, but it's already hovering around it's all-time highs, so not confident it will run up too much higher than its current price. Also, given TLG won't be selling any gold until near the end of 2025 at the earliest IMO (provided things go relatively smoothly from now to first pour), they won't be able to

[metalhead666]

It is all about probabilities. I think it's highly probable that the FED will resume QE this year to "save" the system...that will be rocket fuel for gold.  I think it's highly probable that the "market" tanks and both rates and inflation tumble. The most compelling reason for me to hold TLG is the absurdly low market cap relative to future NPV.  11 million

[metalhead666]

The stock was near $1.50 2 years ago and a lot has happened since then. Many more ounces, resource update, feasibility study, plan to get to production.....with a little excitement in the space I can't see why it wouldn't reclaim those highs or more....that's a fantastic risk reward to me

[AlwaysLong683]

1) The value the market places on a company at any given point in time is its market cap, not its share price. You'd have to go back and see how many shares outstanding there were when the price was much higher. Don't forget that the share price will initially surge if the early batch of assays are impressive as speculators enter to ride the momentum. They then sell, take their profits

[metalhead666]

Fair enough. I think having a position now is low risk especially if you plan to take a bigger stake when it's futher along. You could always bank a short term gain or just build a big position over time and ignore the swings along the way. I'm more inclined to build a stake given that I'm pretty sure it will be a mine or taken over. 

[AlwaysLong683]

I am very confident this will be a mine - just a matter of when, not if, re. first pour IMO. A takeout is of course possible, but I'd bet on either TLG fully funding and developing the project on its own (which is what I'd like to see) or a JV deal (with TLG hopefully retaining as much of a majority stake as possible).

[metalhead666]

So then it just becomes a valuation problem. At a current $150 million market cap vs, what its NPV is or will be....or its market cap vs the value of gold in the ground....or its market cap vs the existing infrastructure.....it's dirt cheap here.  If you're sure it will be a mine then surely it has to be worth at a bare minium the existing infrastructure making it a double on that

[rdy2rumble]

Because he just likes to hear his own voice Metalhead..He's one of those dolls that Steve Martin accused John Candy of being in Planes, trains, and Auotomobiles.. You know the one.. The one with the string in its chest that you pull and it talks,, Its just he's the only one pulling his own string... Good news is it just got more expense for him to buy in if he ever does.. Drivel is what I&

[metalhead666]

Battle North took over the train wreck that was Rubicon....and recently the take over of the remains of Pure Gold....in those cases there was gold in the ground and a lot of existing infrastructure....that makes a huge difference along with being a brownfield site.  It's hard to hold these things given the volatility but if you look down the road 2 years or so....what will TLG be worth

[metalhead666]

I also think the comparison to Artemis is a good one. Very similar projects. As progress is made at TLG it should follow in ARTG footsteps and continue to trend towards NPV

[AlwaysLong683]

ARTG is actually a good example of how a company's share price can be up-and-down volatile / range-bound during the permitting / financing / contracting phase of a project. When ARTG released its FS on Sept 13, 2021, the share price was 5.25. Some random dates to illustrate the volatility of the share price: Nov. 15, 2021:       7.19 Jan 24, 2022:     

[metalhead666]

I totally agree....The FS is just one stop on a long road but it's significant. I think it will have more impact than usual given the POG and interest picking up in the miners.  Lots of moving parts for sure and there's no easy way to play the short term ups and down reliably  That's why I buy cheap before a project is a mine, why I trade frequently during the orphan period

[metalhead666]

ARTG has a market cap now that's 10x TLG.....now it's not a direct apples to apples comparison but there are enough similarities to acknowledge that 10x is a pretty wide gulf.  My working thesis is that as TLG continues to derisk the project this gap is going to narrow significantly.  If it only cut it in half that's a 5x bagger.