Post by
AlwaysLong683 on Mar 14, 2024 1:20am
Additional Comments
How is TLG going to raise the $800M - $1B capex (my bet is $900M+) to go it alone without absolutely blowing out its share count and massively diluting existing shareholders? Any current shareholders on this BB want an equity raise of 300M new shares (doubling the existing 300M fully diluted shares outstanding to total 600M) at around $0.55 for a company at this stage of the process...? Even if they did this raise, it would only net the company around $160M. Debt / Copper Offtake / Streaming / Royalty will not get you there, and JR seems to want to avoid new streaming / royalty agreements anyway.
Management is critical in this sector, especially when building that first operation. Mines are very capex intensive / expensive to build, even with existing infrastructure, and costs can easily get out of hand, requiring more financing to make it to construction. Without TLG's existing infrastructure, I suspect this project would be deemed uneconomical and not be built at all. MREs and FSs are not as tough to pull off as completing financing / contracting / permitting in a timely manner and on good terms that stay true to your FS capex estimates.
I'm even more content to stay on the sidelines and watch how the company proceeds during the rest of 2024 given they are already quite a bit behind schedule from what JR was stating back in October.