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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Troilus Gold Corp T.TLG

Alternate Symbol(s):  CHXMF

Troilus Gold Corp. is a Canadian mining company focused on the systematic advancement and de-risking of the former gold and copper Troilus Mine towards production. The Company owns a 100% interest in the Troilus project. The Company holds a land position of approximately 435 square kilometers (km2) in the mining jurisdiction of Quebec, Canada, within the prospective Frotet-Evans Greenstone Belt... see more

TSX:TLG - Post Discussion

Troilus Gold Corp > Observations / Comments On Today's "Operational Update" PR
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Post by AlwaysLong683 on Mar 29, 2024 2:51am

Observations / Comments On Today's "Operational Update" PR

1) I suspect JR recognized this PR would not be seen as positive by the investment community - thus they released it the day before the long weekend. If they thought this would be bullish for the stock, I suspect they would've released it on Monday or Tuesday, or waited until Tuesday of next week when people are back and paying closer attention to market news.

 
2) Quote from JR's Pre-PDAC event presentation given on either Feb 28 or March 1: 
"Feasibility is out shortly. We were hoping to have it out now, but we've come across some incredible opportunities to go even bigger and more profitable, so we're going to need a few more weeks - we'll have it out very shortly..."
 
Todays' PR:
"We believe we have identified an opportunity to further optimize the Troilus Project and that it is in the interests of all stakeholders to apply these new results to our existing body of work for the Feasibility Study......the Feasibility Study is now expected to be released in May 2024."
 
Not wise to tell the investment community at the end of February that you'll only need a few more weeks to flesh out some "inredible opportunities", then come out with a PR four weeks later stating you've "identified an opportunity" but are going to need at least another four weeks before producing the promised FS. Overpromising and underdelivering at the FS stage does not bode well for post-FS financing / contracting / permitting / breaking ground timeframes.

 
3) Those who think the FS will send the shares rocketing upward when it's released (even if it presents a very attractive market cap to NPV ratio) may be disappointed. If no JV or other financing agreement(s) are announced simultaneously, the initial capex number may give investors pause. Remember, the FS just provides estimates, not guarantees, so confidence in management is key. If a JV agreement is announced in conjuction with the release of the FS, the terms of that agreement will likely play a large role in the investment community's assessment of what a share of TLG is worth at the time the JV information is made available and thus how much more money TLG will have to come up with to fulfill their portion of the initial capex.
 
 
Comment by Gutinstincts55 on Mar 29, 2024 7:17am
Regarding item 3.... No one knows how SP will react.  Even with a smashing report the bump up could be less than what some think.  The key words are "could be".  No one knows.  One thing I do know is that if it's up 20% or 2-3x I'm not selling one of my 652k shares.  I don't care what short term SP is.  I know what it could very well be in a ...more  
Comment by Potadvisor1 on Mar 29, 2024 9:47am
Your analogy as to how to invest in this type of stock is highly accurate. Most can't calculate present value nor do they have the ability to look down the road and evaluate what the stock should do once certain catalysts are met. There is cartainly patience required like my IVN holdings for instance where I have owned my current shares for 8 years already, but that patience has returned over ...more  
Comment by AlwaysLong683 on Mar 30, 2024 12:54am
Investors in microcap first-mine builder companies may have different investment strategies even if are all interested in investing in the same company, and of course that's fine.   Buying now (or in past months / years) and holding because one likes the project, the current share price / market cap, and possess confidence in management to deliver is one of those strategies ...more  
Comment by AlwaysLong683 on Mar 30, 2024 1:12am
Correction re. my last post: According to TLG's latest Fact Sheet, the "50+ Institutional / Global Funds" only own around 50% of the company, so they only own $71M combined (half of TLG's current market cap of $142M), or $1.4M each on average.