Post by
TRRG on Jul 12, 2015 8:01pm
Long term gold - Down !
Gold is currently sitting at major support right around 1153 with heavy price action and a COT that has not improved significantly. The COT clearly shows an absence of buyers for gold and too many long small speculators for silver. Gold is trapped between the dollar and interest rates. If the dollar falls further, the yield on the 10 year T-Note will rise just as it did Friday, July 10 in the afternoon. The only thing that will help gold at this point is new buyers coming in to push the price above 1189 and keep it there. Unfortunately, too many bulls are trapped at every level above 1200. Gold needs new buyers, new bulls and the lower it moves the longer it will take to recover. In conclusion, we need to see buying step up on rising open interest and volume. Unfortunately, at this moment it is more likely we will begin to see open interest fall off with even the slightest hint of a "Greek resolution." If you are trading futures, your best strategy is to be positioned short gold and silver here until such time as gold closes above 1189. Here you would cover your short position. In conclusion, there is no new bull market, cyclical bull market, for gold as long as the trend in US interest rates is up.
Comment by
boomchickawawa on Jul 12, 2015 8:11pm
u.s. interest rates can never go up , if they went upto the median level every dollar of revenue would go towrds servicing debt! Interestr rates will never go up ! its all smoke and mirrors, this is why rates have gonedown since2008 there is no recovery ! qe 5 will be a monster!
Comment by
TRRG on Jul 12, 2015 8:31pm
Rates are moving up sooner or later with S&P 500, the most bullish scenario for US stock markets! US $ moving up, gold moving down ! Small miners loosing money declares bankruptcies ! Is it hard to understand ? Gold had its 11 years run, now we going to move on !
Comment by
boomchickawawa on Jul 12, 2015 8:59pm
not a chance, if you have moved on you wouldn't be posting here, lets not try to kid a kidder.
Comment by
boomchickawawa on Jul 12, 2015 9:00pm
come q1 2016 they will still be talking about raising rates for the first time, just talking not actually doing .