TMAC Resources Inc. T.TMR

What am I missing here?

[Wineaux]

After a very rough 2019 they now have the gravity concentrators, surge bins and scavenger columns all in place and commissioned. Therefore, for 1Q20 we should have the best recovery rates ever at 85%+ and maximum processing through-put of 1,800tpd+. Of course it's not 90% and 2,000tpd but that is the best they can do with what they have got. They have been holding off processing the BTD Extension high-grade ore until they have the plant at the best level possible. From what I can see is that they are very active there and the grades are amazing.

Historically they have processed grades up to 13.7gt in a quarter and last quarter they were a mere 7.1gt. 

They've got a weak hand right now. One obvious way to strengthen their hand is by having a great quarter and generating cash. I mean if I were Neal I would be pushing EVERYTHING high-grade through in the quarter even it it's not 90% recovery. 

Provided that they don't have more bad luck (power failures or mine issues) isn't it reasonable to assume that they will have a blow out quarter in 1Q20? Using my model with 1,800tpd x 86% recovery x 12gt x US$1,500 gold I have them generating about C$40M+ in free cashflow in the first quarter, they could do the same or better in the second quarter as well.

[snowshoedb]

I think the metalurgy was not properly considered when the original mill was purchased and built. The retrofit hasn't had the desired result... now thy have run out of time and cash. Someone needs to do it over with a totally new mill design and send the old mill to the dump. 

[LithInvestor]

Scavenger columns and the new resin project wont be wrapped up until the end of Feb at the earliest. Recoverings will surely be better moving forward after completion though.

[chipper63]

I'm really surprised that Gekko dropped the ball on this one. I have dealt with them in the past and have found them to be very thorough in their ability to analyze and pre-determine the system required to optimize recovery within a complex sulfide ore body.    The fact that no one at TMAC is mentioning any of this (that the manufacture screwed up) and isn’t demanding answers

[LithInvestor]

Gekko has made multiple trips to site to work with metallurgy on bringing up recoveries, at the end of the day the bulk sample that was used to design the circuit wasnt completely representable of the ore body to be mined. That, and the resin stripping circuit is struggling big time.

[riverrrow]

I think one poster here, asforecasts, pointed out that the ore here is in permafrost and is therefore not oxidized which makes it a lot more difficult to extract the gold from as compared to oxidized ore. Is it possible that the initial bulk ore used to test for recovery was from a shallow zone and partially oxidized and therefore achieved a higher test recovery rate? One accidental error after