TELESTA THERAPEUTICS INC T.TST

AGM revenue takeaway - $705.6mm

[beechguy]

I was very perplexed by the pricing and revenue presented. Berendt said there is between 15 and 24 instillations of MNCA every two years at $3000 per instillation. That is $45,000 per patient USD (minimum). 80k BC patients annually in US. 80% are NMIBC (64,000). of those 70% to 80% will become refractory to BCG within two years (44,800 x 70% is 31,360) at a 50% penetration (15,680 x $45,000 = $705,600,000 - on a high margin drug) There are also 600,000 or 800,000 (can't remember the figure) existing BC patients in the US as well. Bioniche's $200,000,000 projected revenue, I don't get. (14% penetration, when your next treatment is your bladder being removed??) Anyone care to explain??? beech

[rgonlyfactspls]

Beech, Definitely worth asking Mr. Olds for clarification. I recall the same "lowball" feeling when I first saw the $200M U.S. target on recent BNC PPT (and, even way back to the one time Endo actually put a low estimate in a PPT)...I went to Taylor Collison's Feb 11 report to compare. Don't have your answer but here is their forecast.... Urocidin's "patient pool"