TELESTA THERAPEUTICS INC T.TST

Valuation of TST

[TheRock07]

CASE 1............MCNA  has zero value


Cash and liquid inverstmenta.......................$50 million
Manufacturing plant/real estate....................$5 million
TSX listing....................................................$5 million
$112 million tax loss pools...........................$30 million

Total  value  =     $90 million ( $0.27 per share )..

Note......tax pool times 27 % tax rate = $30 millin



CASE   2.......MCNA gets approved outside USA

Ipsen deal is $137 million US ( $180 million cad ) in upfront and milestone payments.

Total value  = $90 million + $180 million = $270 million cad  ( $0.81 per share



CASE 3.....MCNA is approved by the FDA for US

TST  will manufacture and sell MCNA in the US.

Peak sales estimated in the $250 to $400 million US range.
Assume $250 million US.

Peer valuations = 3 times peak sales = $750 million US = $1 billion cad

Total Valuation = $270 million + $1 billion = $1.27 billion = $3.90 per share

There is another case...that MCNA receives partial approval for a subset of patient disease range

Its not possible to value such an outcome at present but it would be between Case 11 and case 111

[lolstocks]

It's worth adding this to CASE 2: "Under the financial terms of the agreement, Telesta is eligible to receive up to US$137 million in upfront and milestone payments comprising a US$10 million upfront payment and additional payments contingent upon achievement of regulatory and sales milestones. In addition, Telesta is eligible to receive meaningful tiered double-digit