Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd T.TVE

Industry Comparison

[Hendrick3]

1QFFO/ share compared to share price- Industry comparison

Funds flow from operations is a good measure of economic performance and 1Q is a good indication of the future performance of oil abd gas companies as higher oil prices start to emerge. I have compared various companies FFO/ share relative to their share price and finally the number of quarters to achieve the share price ( low number best)

               1Q FFO/ share.       Share price.   Xquarters
ATH.            .04.                       .75.                 18.8
BTE.            .28.                      1.75.                  6.3
IPO.             .09.                       .65.                  7.2
OBE.            .49.                     2.03.                  4.1
TVE.            .16.                      2.61.                16.3
WCP.           .36.                      5.54.                 15.4
YGR.            .20.                     1.17.                 5.85

All these numbers suggest tremendous under valuation as anything under 20 ( 5 years funds flow multiple is under valued. Some are much more than others. 

[KM24207]

Thanks for sharing this Hendrick - I'm assuming this excludes net debt? Would love to see those numbers with net debt included if you had time!

[Hendrick3]

I did do an analysis of some industry players NPV of reserves less net debt per share at P1, P2 and P3 levels compared to stock price. The analysis was done 3 weeks ago It showed about the same levels of relative undervaluation. I I'll repost here in a minute.   

[Hendrick3]

The analysis below uses the December 31, 2020 reserve reports. It calculates the NPV of reserves discounted at 10% (Which includes reclamation liabilities) less net debt for each of proven producing, total proven and proven plus possible. The share prices from 3 weeks ago are then calculated as a percentage to determine relative undervaluation. You will therefore notice the stock prices have

[KM24207]

Very interesting - thanks for sharing! It seems right now another good metric is market cap plus net debt per boe/day as many companies have said they'd prefer to buy production than drill it - should make for an interesting year! Another tiny company I've been accumulating is vux.v as they have good producers near my hometown of Hanna, Ab and an upcoming seismic program but because they

[Druchii]

Hey Hendricks, love your insights.  I Bought IPO and OBE based on your analysis and these have both been solid winners for me, so big thanks for that! NVA also seems really cheap based on the same analysis. Is that one on your radar? TAL also looks extremely cheap based on TPP.  It does come with political risk and some others, but these risks appear to be headed lower at the moment.

[Druchii]

Question re TVE, do the ratios include the 2 recent acquistions?