Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd T.TVE

Debt level/Return of Capital

[Sirlostalot]

Just wondering what thoughts on the board are with respect to debt levels and returns to shareholders. At an all businesss costs covered at 35wti and wti being in excess of 80 would Mgt not have over $2 million fcf per day conservatively , 140million for the 70 days in the quarter so far. Is there really any doubt debt wouldn't be under 400m ? Guess I'm just wondering for such a low cost producer where is all the cash .

[Bennys65]

Management goes to any lenghts to hit targets..We are pulling on a lot of levers.Buying great land, M&A,building gas plants to save 400,000 per well at charlie lake,derisking new land while expanding waterflood at Nipisi, paying down debt,and buying back shares.Selling viking assets and royalities allow them to do all these things while, staying on trackt for 400 million and then 200 million

[Scotchlight1001]

My thoughts are 1) you have confirmed the economics for investing in TVE are very compelling, 2) based on other posts, the potential Deltastream acquisition is holding the stock back, until more news is made public. The volume confirms negotiations are in the works. There will be no return of capital to shareholders or debt repayment until this matter is resolved. The timeframe is uncertain

[SeargentPepper]

I remain doubtful that TVE ends up buying Deltastream. I don't pretend to know much, but it just seems to me there are other companies that can better afford it. I'm still interested to see what happens.   

[Bennys65]

I agree.Theonly  way they can afford it is for arc to take tve shares relaizing the potential upside of the combined companys. Think it comes down to which management team and assets  they want more.TVE or HWX

[Baystboy07]

worst thing that can happen is the ARC funds takes shares if there is a Deltastream acquisition... Deltastream is in a limited life LP and the worst thing that can happen to $TVE is to have tens of millions of shares as an overhang from a PE fund....it will cap the share price until they are liquidated...look at $SGY for proof of what happens.  

[Bennys65]

Great point 

[4thefunofit]

I was being a little more conservative with my estimate, saying a cost of $45/bbl x 70 days - dividend - capex.  I still came to the same conclusion, they are for sure I just hope they have started buying back shares aggressively, especially since they are on sale at 2021 prices!

[Lizzzy]

not quite.  Adjusted funds flow is about 2m a day.  Free funds flow is slightly less than half that.   Yes, net debt is well under $400m.  But they announced any enhanced dividends and enhanced shareholder returns will be announced on a QUARTERLY basis. So don't expect an announcement the very day their net debt goes below $400m