Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd T.TVE

The deal...analysis

[kavern23]

Correct me if I am wrong...but isn't this deal in a sense TVE borrowing a 123m at rate cheaper than financing and the ARO payments are like yearly interest. 

Brutal valuation and shows just how overvalued canadian public energy companies are.

Guessing richochet is the private company.

I like this deal way more for TVE if you have to sell this asset to be more of a pure play...if TVE got shares in another company or equity in private before it goes public for these assets.

Like what is annual cost for the ARO TVE is taking on?

[kavern23]

I don't doubt that TVE can drill good charlie lake and clearwater wells with this 123m...I have thought payouts on some of the wells are so good they should be speeding up sweet spot drilling so why didnt TVE just cut the divy to zero for awhile to have more capital to spend on sweet spot drilling in both areas. TVE drilling results will get better when they stop drilling to test edges of

[kavern23]

With saudi withholding oil production, TVE should be drilling as hard and fast as possible, the differene between 85 and 70 on a charlie lake wells NPV is huge.

[realcdn]

I don't think you are interpreting the press release correctly. It says the sale for $123M PLUS assumption of ARO's. To me, that reads as buyer is assuming the future ARO costs. But I will say, the release is not well written nor clear on this important fact.  Will be interesting to see market reaction tomorrow. 

[kavern23]

Sorry you are correct..just wierdly written and usually per flowing barrel number. Yeah it makes the deal better for TVE and also shows how hard those assets are pushed Reality tve then kinda got 123m + 38.4m inactive ARO..as inactive wells have the pressure to be cleaned up.

[robert41]

I read it as they don't have any aro liability.. you mention you think Canadian oil and gas companies are significantly overvalued I see them as undervalued....what am I missing? Or is that release not clear and ur opinion on values a typo.

[robert41]

I'm guessing if you give up 7k in production for 123 mil you you have a lot better places to invest your money than the 7k it was invested in. The move in the market today seemed to indicate something positive was happening more than just the price of oil directing the stock.. who knows

[kavern23]

I agree man, I dont own TVE shares but I still think they have best ability to grow oil production in western canada. But one problem is if oil prices ever take a downturn..a company like Canadian Natural Resources swoops in...look at CNQ history. CNQ likes to buy companies after all the work has been done. TVE in late 2024 or early 2025 is a fit for CNQ but CNQ doesnt like to pay much.

[kavern23]

Mean best ability to grow oil production not countingsagd or oilsands in Western Canada...who really has better ability than TVE for oil growth....

[downwithdotcom1]

Eric "the entertainer" Nuttall was talking about this impending sale needing to be consumated the last few times he talked about owning TVE and liking it even though its cost him monies ...wonder what he has to say about the metrics??? dwdc

[egee]

All things being equal if the 4 handle holds and 3q numbers , including sale , gets figured in, then we will know how the market likes or not. eric will vindicated and hailed a hero once again my money is on TVE finally showing up to the "dance"

[Swackaboozy]

Tamarack will do quarterly report on Wednesday,if FCF is peanuts SP will plunge.

[Dibah420]

Really? https://assets-global.website-files.com/631b1b5140f68ad05f6927f5/6531c450bc8f1b5db31b53ac_2023%2010%20TVE%20External%20Presentation.pdf