Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd T.TVE

@ $77.00 WTI and Current Differentials and the CAD$

[MLEWICKIMBA]

1. TVE can buyback 150,000 Shares Per Day.with ease -- that is within their budget

2. 22 trading days on average in the month that is 3,300,000 shares per month

3. Estimated share buybacks in H2 at about 17M.  That includes July and August through December 2024. 

4. That will be 26M+ for 2024.  Plus rthe Dividend.  Plus the Debt Repayment.  

And the stock is still 3.84?

15% rally is warranted this month!

Happy Weekend.

ML

[robert41]

Imagine how many months it will take to have any meaningful impact on the stockprice probably years actually. Get rid of the debt first which they aren't going to do. Then attack the float you would have a lot more cash to buy back cheap shares and take advantage of down markets.. doing what they are doing is slowing things down.. 

[MLEWICKIMBA]

I don't agree. The debt is not an issue.  The interests costs are paid with less than 2 weeks of sales.  The acquisition allowed for much lower costs per barrel. Reserves are great now.   Leverage is ok. This year FCF WILL BE 330M to 370M CAD NOT 250M AS BUDGETED. Sorry for the capitals 60% is a lot on that on the second quarter. Look at the list of accomplishment in

[robert41]

Manageable debt is ok if prices are reasonable theses companies always end up in trouble when prices drop and they will at some point for some reason. And then guess what, debt ruins them not the share structure. If you want to protect yourself in any business low or no debt is always king..companies with low or no debt and leverage can pray on those that haven't looked after the balance sheet

[HoneyBadger77]

You are 100% correct robert41.  $800-$900 million in debt is not chump change for a company the size of TVE (based on their market cap).  And the amount of shares they're buying back will take years to make any  meaningful difference.  Why not pay down the debt to about $400 million, let the shares move up to $8.00 bucks and then do a 2:1  share rollback if and when

[HoneyBadger77]

And just a few more considerations to add to my initial post.  If they continue to buyback shares at 3.3 million a month that equates to 39 million shares a year and at Friday's close of $3.85 that about $152 million CAD.  Now lets say they continue to buy back shares for the next 2 years (78 million shares at an average of $3.85 per share).  That means they will have bought

[robert41]

I think if we look at ATH they attacked debt first then buybacks.. big float like TVE a lot less production. The charts tell a story...maybe TVE sees a double digit share price in a few years quality assets great production. This will be slower than most want. I just don't like the process yet i have 50k shares waiting and trusting this will be the case. 

[wannabebuffet]

Totally agree. Steve, the CFO, said he is comfortable with the debt. I am not. The debt needs to be taken down. It is still too high. The share price will stay below fair value until the debt is brought down. I want to reach into Alberta and give them a shake. They need it.