Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd T.TVE

G&M: Rosenberg on Commodities

[Dibah420]

Investors have abandoned commodity exposure, and the asset class is completely unloved. Overall sentiment and positioning in the space are negative, increasing the odds of a surprise to the upside on any positive news. In terms of positioning, average CFTC net positioning across commodities is at a lowly 20th percentile reading, while 12-month rolling net flows into natural resources ETFs as a percentage of total ETF flows are at a 17th percentile reading. What’s more, Consensus Inc.’s Bullish Sentiment Index for all commodities averages at a reading of 42, which sits at a 21st percentile, too, implying an overall bearish sentiment among market participants. These are contrarian signs. As everyone piles on the “short” side of the trade, taking the other side offers a chance to benefit when the herd reverses course as they begin to sniff the inevitable recovery.

It’s not just cyclical factors and investor sentiment; the structural supply/demand backdrop across commodities is positive for prices too.

Here are the key demand drivers:

• Energy commodities: Goldman expects demand to peak out in 2035 at 110 million barrels per day, and OPEC+ expects demand at 106 million barrels per day in 2045 – a steady increase from 100 million barrels per day in 2023. Oil and natural gas are expected to broadly retain their joint share of total energy demand per OPEC+. While details of demand from different forecasters vary, it is becoming clear that overall demand for oil is expected to stay strong as the transition to greener sources of energy lags and the world’s energy needs increase at a steady pace, the result of a changing climate (the need for more air conditioning), a growing number of generative AI data centres and increased industrialization in the developing world

[cre8value4me]

Yes I read the articleits pretty rare for the perma bear Rosenburg to speak out in such a positve way...... doesn't happen often from him so I tend to think its good timely advise for sure!

[dandu1924]

and  what else , they can not be right in 2 or 3 days or weeks and now they talking about in 2035 or 2045, bla, bla, bla, Just idiot and stupid people are they, and they thinking the investors idiot and stupid to believe that. Thumb down, to them, specialy Goldman and others like  Stanley etc. not trustable people.