Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd T.TVE

TD Notes

[retiredcf]

THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

Weekly Oil Charts

Promise of green-lighting 'massive resource projects' as CPC potentially secures a majority government prior to summer: With the resignation of the current PM, Mr. Justin Trudeau, we believe the likelihood of a CPC majority remains high. Notably, Mr. Pierre Poilievre recently stated that his administration would 'rapidly green-light massive resource projects'—perhaps easier said than done but in our view, a change of control and a swing back towards the center-right points to a potentially 'growthier' outlook for the industry. Our view is further supported by Trump's election win which points to regulatory tailwinds north and south of the border. In our view, this backdrop could ultimately drive a reversal of the extreme fiscal discipline we've seen since the 2020 meltdown (i.e., potentially higher WCSB spending and volume growth). Nevertheless, over at least the near term, we see most producers sticking to modest growth and prioritizing shareholder capital returns, since excess growth will only rekindle past basin egress challenges, and also because this is what investors continue to demand. For context, Canada already produces ~5mmbbl/d of crude oil annually (~60% oil sands), with ~4mmbbl/d or 80% of this total exported to the U.S.

[Jimmy1page]

"Easier said then done"?. The Prime Minister of Canada has absolute control over pipelines and can approve them with the stroke of a pen.