Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd T.TWM

ATCO & Pioneer

[fauxtomato]

From the updated ATCO presentation, the regulatory approvals of the Pioneer acquisition look to be more H1 than Q1. I think this week is the CIBC western conference which is why everyone is posting updated presentations. If anyone has a link to the webcasts or agenda, it'd be much appreciated.

[AntoninScalia]

From slide 26: "Approvals are expected by the second quarter of 2021."

[firstworld]

Ahahaha Husky gets approvals on a multi BN deal in 8 weeks and these yahoos spin a 6 month approval process...is the buyer a N. Korean front company LOL or is the asset audit trail so messy it takes that long to figure out if it's just junk or a huge fraud....I imagine the sale price discount is at 30% by now.

[fauxtomato]

I'll take that ~30% bet. This sale is different from the HSE-CVE transaction in that the asset is becoming part of a regulated utility's ratebase. Hey firstworld, if you ever want to take a break from low effort trolls to focus more intently on polyglot, physics PhD Petrova's pneumatic paddleball play I can probably write your posts for you, just let me know.

[firstworld]

Lol the upside is that AB now has $500 MN in rusty pipe for sale at $0.002 on the dollar to offset the 8 BN loss on XL gamble. I'm sure the global class executive team can figure out how to spin that into an " investment grade" deal signed on the back of a wet napkin in an Oyen truck stop bathroom haha

[fauxtomato]

https://www.auc.ab.ca/regulatory_documents/ProceedingDocuments/2020/25937_hearing.pdf

[fauxtomato]

Going to guess this is where the 30% discount is coming from: https://www2.auc.ab.ca/Proceeding25937/ProceedingDocuments/25937_X0040_2021-01-07%20Evidence%20Submission%20from%20WEG%2000113418xC5DFB_000052.pdf I. INTRODUCTION 1. The Western Export Group (“WEG”) is a group of utilities serving residential, commercial and industrial retail customers in western North America, comprised of

[fauxtomato]

This is a summary of a report created by a consultant hired by the Utilities Consumer Advocate. It's interesting in its entirety (eseentially: the addition of Pioneer to the ratebase at an inflated cost isn't justified, supplies can be met by the utilities through NGTL & Pioneer, there is no evidence the pipeline will be required beyond year 15 given, etc etc) AP is Atco Pipelines

[nkbourbaki]

Hey Tomato -- please check your PMs.   

[robbie88]

What does this report mean for the pioneer pipeline deal with AP?

[firstworld]

Ahahaha this is why it took so long I knew there was additional DD IMO this is the skeleton in the close that kills or substantially discounts the deal. Looks like it's designed for clean exit. Wonder if there is a break fee on yet another TWM investment grade deal.

[fauxtomato]

The issue is between the AUR and ATCO, the onus is on ATCO to justify the additions to the ratebase, it's not TWM's case to argue. The issue here isn't the asset: the regulatory timeline was laid out by the AUR when ATCO was announced as the purchaser in October. It's all public data. The consumer advocates are going to challenge it, how routine these objections are is beyond my

[firstworld]

It's a small deal and this report kills the deal or it's discounted 50-70%. Remember this is a very polite consultants report it simply couldn't be any worse after sitting through the fluff.

[fauxtomato]

Are we discounting the transaction 30% 50% or 70%?

[firstworld]

I think it's dead and the asset is now black listed so it was a total waste ok of shareholder funds although I'm sure execs for their bonuses and friends and family got nice over priced contracts to they could afford typical new red neck toys LOL.

[fauxtomato]

Spent $200m building a pipeline that's worth $0 now, typical Alberta.

[firstworld]

LOL its comical the levels of incompetence in AB and Canada management. Always chasing tomorrow's penny missing the $100s LMFAO. All they had to do was turn off the taps for 3 months to various blockers...instead... 1. approve $50BN in oil sands expansion with zero market access. Sure let's build 2000K homes with no roads, water, or sanitation...brilliant. So the serious foreign capital

[fauxtomato]

Don't disagree on any of this, but then you get to this bit: And then there is TWM who received a substantial purchase leaseback offer I. The many millions and declined it out of pure arrogance And I don't know what you mean?

[firstworld]

I was told that they received a substantial asset purchase leaseback offer in the many millions that they rejected because they like to "own". So the offering company simply reported them to CRA as declining revenue...I suppose lime all welfare fraudsters it will be clawed back. The whole corp welfare fraud it's probably the biggest risk right now with all these entitles complained

[fauxtomato]

The old 'give them an offer, if they refuse turn them into the government' tactic, classic USSR. I think TWM could liquidate its assets today for approximately their EV, 

[AntoninScalia]

  EBITDA Multiple EV Pipestone $35,000,000 8.3 $290,500,000 BRC $50,000,000 8.3 $415,000,000 PGR $75,000,000 2.9 $215,000,000 Pioneer $10,000,000 12.75 $127,500,000 Pipestone B $4,000,000 7

[Maxmoe]

I probably will regret asking but how do you get EV of $1,005 ? I see debt of at least $1B, $1.3B right off balance sheet, plus mkt cap of $300 million = $1,300 to $1,600.  

[AntoninScalia]

Price: $0.90 Shares Outstanding: 338,413,000 Market Cap: $305 million Cash: $11 million  Debt: $866 million Senior Credit Facility - $567,453 Second Lien Term Loan - $100,000 Notes payable - $123,346 Debentures - $75,000 EV: $1,160 million ($1,022 if you include Pioneer proceeds)

[fauxtomato]

Watching HOCL is sort of terrifying if you read through potential TWM outcomes, who are these goons? https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/HOCL But at least TWM is doing ok mining BTC as BRC, or selling off all their in the money hedges and re-hedging at lower product prices. Or whatever trade school grads do when given a few hundred million of other people's money. The noise around Russian money

[firstworld]

Haha well I guess it's fitting for Canada's centrally planned economy, Soviet style travel restrictions for the non elites, and funding the top 3% (all losers if need welfare) on the backs of the masses LOL. Every welfare fraudster declining legitimate revenue should be imprisoned in a 1940's Germany type "designated facily" that everyone is cheering in Canada now LOL and was