Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd T.TWM

Some bullish comments here

[pennydredful]

Do not explain  why the stock  is  sucking wind. .........................

[Ogopogo26]

Shares are trading below IPO, prior management has destroyed all goodwill by pursuing a debt financed empire building strategy, focusing on EBITDA growth rather than DCF growth.  Credit to the new management for finishing the refinery turnaround, finishing the renewable diesel project and getting the Altagas deal this year. However the Altagas deal hasn't even closed and the

[Mephistopheles3]

Agreed on almost all your points.  Prior to new management coming in, company was unfocused and a bit everywhere with buying assets and getting into lots of different things, which they can't as a small cap.   That being said, at current prices, this really is a show-me story, but there is a large upside and I think limited downside.  Just the Altagas deal will pay off

[Ogopogo26]

I agree, limited downside, large upside. How much DCF will improve because of the ALA deal is unclear as they will lose $50mn in EBITDA. I think Management said that it will be accretive, however didn't quantify it, if I am not mistaken. I also agree as to needed catalysts. The ALA deal closing by itself might not be enough. However, it will be a positive, removing any kind of uncertainty

[TVR]

For the combined Tidewater/Tidewater Renewables entity the $50 milion EBITDA loss from the Pipestone sale will be replaced or largely replaced by a similar amount of new EBITDA from the Diesel Renewables plant  that is now bing ramped up and should be operating at capaity by Q1 or Q2 2024. 

[Mephistopheles3]

The other potential catalyst to keep an eye out for is the potential of LCFS entirely to another party.  It wasn't this quarter, but on the Q2 call, management said they were looking at "deconsolidating" LCFS - meaning they want to dispose of their ownership of it or part of their ownership.  LCFS spinoff just hasn't worked out well, so it is definately on management

[Ogopogo26]

LCFS can go either way. They might sell the entire company or just sell down their stake, unlikely to happen at a price much lower than the $15 IPO price in August 2021 or buying out the minorities and taking the renewable business back under the TWM wings.  I agree, plenty of catalysts, from closing of Pipestone (ALA now trading close to $28) to announcement that HDRD is operating at full

[longrun86]

The issue I see with them trying to dispose of LCFS or sell it down to below a controlling position is the fact that the operations are highly integrated from an operations perspective. An external buyer would be extremely uncomfortable because they would be beholden to TWM from a property ownership and operational management perspective. I am just not seeing how an outright sale would be

[Ogopogo26]

I agree, good point, in the end this carve out served the purpose to get HDRD financed back in 2021 without an external party, but never made sense from a standalone perspective. Maybe they can sell it down if sentiment around LCFS stock were to change and it shot back up to $15. More likely they'll have to bring it back in under the TWM umbrella, like Transalta did with Transalta Renewables

[longrun86]

If Management and the Board really believe that LCFS is going to work, they should want to bring it back in-house. Overall, this is an attractive price and I can see there being opportunities in the future to unlock more value.  Let's see what they can do once the ALA deal closes and capital allocation becomes a key theme at the Board. LR