Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd T.TWM.DB.A

Renewable Diesel FID

[fauxtomato]

Could be a while, could be tomorrow till there is any TWM news, specifically firstworld's snake oil (actually: beef tallow) refinery. To pass the time I thought I'd make a contest for my gambling friends. Winner gets to pick from the prize jar (currently thought to contain some Noble Romans free breadstick coupons).

Simply pick the date you expect an announcement to be made (MM/DD/YY) and one of three outcomes:

A) TWM goes it alone
B) Financed by a working interest partner
C) Does not proceed.

Closest to the pin wins. For a tiebreak, predict the exact % WI you predict TWM will carry (0-100). You can PM entries to maintain a competitive edge.

Any other long haulers will remember the '30-60 days' that phase 2 of the 'Montney Egress Hub' was under consideration stretched out to over a year and was never formally announced (but ended up happening I think with a privateco JV, right? I still don't understand their gas storage business and if it contributes to the bottom line).

[goodbuddy]

Good Morning, Let's go with the process of elimination first to get to my answers. A- TWM goes it alone- Not a very likely scenario they're debt would be still above their target of 3.0/3.5 range. They might try and sell some assets to make tis happen, possible but again, not sure what properties they would like to part with other than some non-performing assets and those assets probable

[fauxtomato]

Need a date :D I say 7/27/21 B 51% 

[goodbuddy]

09/07/21 "B" 51% or can be less if there is multiple PE's invested.

[goodbuddy]

September 7, 2021

[Maxmoe]

Q2 is due august 11 according to my calendar, so that's my guess for the date. Or at least an update. These guys don't seem inclined to spoon feed investors with weekly or monthly press releases. Just the quarterlies it seems. Best partner is deep pockets more interested in the hoopla and PR of "green" anything than nuts and bolts of operating it. So my guess is they keep 60% and

[goodbuddy]

Another trend happening now is, companies are recieving money to finance their desire from a Venture capital. TWM would have 100% working interest in return they would give a coupon rate plus a percventage of sales from this asset. A tuff one to predict.

[fauxtomato]

All good points, thank you both. I've recorded your entries in my copy book. I'll figure out some prize when and if it happens. I think a  60/40 JV with project level financing would be my preference: requires no incremental cash from TWM, de-risks the project but should return material DCF. I'm wary of a 100% TWM goes it alone scenario: the spreadsheet of the project is

[Maxmoe]

2023, man you're high on hopium. And my guess is after whatever goes to First Nations.  

[fauxtomato]

If they FID now-ish I think 2023 is still a possibility. We live in hope. Most of the unit would be prefab, modular and just assembled on site, the site work is brownfield, not like they'll be building miles of new roads or clearing trees for the first year. But I think there needs to be some urgency around this, the '60-90 days' from the March 11th announcement have run out. I'd

[firstworld]

FN gangsters will hijack it, green beans will block it, a butterfly nest will kill it, and will never get built dispute all the welfare dollars.

[fauxtomato]

I hate to nitpick your poetry, but I don't think a 'butterfly nest' is a thing. Maybe you're referencing the hummingbird nests that held up TMX recently? You're right: a more enlightened first world country would have just drive a CAT over it.

[goodbuddy]

The only thing I was right on this was TWM kept a majoriuty stake in the renewables.