Post by
Margin321 on Feb 16, 2021 12:19pm
We need a new number
TXP treading water and cannot really move up (or down for that matter) without a new number.
Review of important numbers from 2020.
1. February 6, Casca1. First stage of production test (lower zones) - 30 mmcf/day plus 680 barrels/day of condensate
2. March 11, Casca 1. Second stage of production test (upper zone - 28 mmcf/day plus 783 barrels of condensate. Modelling of entire well supports gross production of 40-50 mmcf/day and 1100-1400 barrels of condensate/day.
3. July 20 , Casca . DPIIP ranges 241-571 Bcf with best estimate 398 Bcf. NPV ranges $288 million to $ 803 million with best estimate $519 million. (for reference current TXP market cap $481 million.
4. October 14, Chinook. -589 feet of net pay in three sheets.
5. December 3, Casca deep,. 1315 feet of net pay with 1007 in overthrust sheets and 308 feet in previously untested sheets below that (intermediate, not the original deep target).
So what we need is a new number. Most likely to come first is 24 hour production test from deepest chinook zone, which is bit of a wild card. But then will be 24 hour production tests from intermediate zone at casca deep. (if they really flip flop between the two wells). Then upper zones at chinook, then upper zones at casca deep. The zones most likely to be truly awesome are the last ones to be tested - they are basically extensions of the already tested prolific zones at casca1 except thicker.
Anyway nothing to do but wait as these numbers are filled in. In my opinion it is okay to continue to buy here or even lower if the first chinook zone doesn't thrill. There are other numbers to come.
The only other pertinent number floating out there is the actual initial production rate of the Coho well when connected to pipeline, but that will come AFTER all the testing numbers from the chinook and the casca deep wells. And won't be that important. 7 mmcf/day would disappoint, 9 mmcf/day is expected, anything over 10 mmcf/day would get a little attention. None of that really matters.
Comment by
Goaweigh on Feb 16, 2021 8:37pm
Like the bottom 68 ' at Chinook ? An entirely new zone I belive and isn't it here that we think might give us a clue as to whether or not there may be a continuous zone connecting Cascadura Deep to Chinook. Or have I got that wrong ? We have to be dam close to flowing something !!!