2024-09-19 19:27 ET - Market Summary
by Stockwatch Business Reporter
<Stanley's Comment> As previously mentioned, as TXP transitions to steady state (aka nameplate) producer from explorer with an (misdirection/misdirected?) acquisition thrown for good measure, Lurk & Learns in a quandry as to how this episode might eventuate would do the "adult" thing and wait for the long awaited addition of the next two Cascadura gas well and attendant reflection/inflection on EPS for quarters 3 & 4.
For the brave the cryptic timing of the "operational update"(OUD) suggest some aforementioned possible buffeting might the telegraphing to shareholders to temper any expectations (over exeburance) unless and until the long awaited connection and stabilized production (steady state) is announced. The Q1 2025 drilling (or not) not withstanding.
Hopefully (and wishing must never form part of an informed investment strategy); however those thinking that an "under promise and over deliver" strategy is the only acceptable reason of an OUD "in the coming months". BWDIK??
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In one last bit of acquisition news, a scorned suitor has surrendered and let its slippery target go.
Paul Baay's Trinidad-focused Touchstone Exploration Inc. (TXP) added four cents to 60 cents on 84,200 shares, after deciding to abandon its takeover of a fellow Trinidadian producer, the London AIM-listed Trinity Exploration.
"We are disappointed with the outcome of this process," sighed president and CEO Mr. Baay, reiterating that he saw "compelling value" in the offer. He soon perked up and vowed to host an investor day "soon" in order to "updat[e] our shareholders on our strategic and operational progress."
Touchstone's disappointment is surely matched by Trinity's sense of triumph.
Although Trinity and Touchstone had quite the love-in when they first agreed to merge in May, Trinity changed its tune when it got a roughly 33-per-cent-higher offer from a rival bidder, Lease Operators, in August. The fact that this was after Touchstone's offer had already received regulatory and shareholder approval did not faze either member of the new couple.
Touchstone played hardball, refusing to increase its offer and dangling its irrevocable agreements from the holders of two-fifths of Trinity's shares.
Yet the spectre of an all-powerful referee seems to have forced a retreat. Trinity announced yesterday that it will ask the U.K. court to force a withdrawal of Touchstone's offer.
Whether it would succeed is not clear, but given the laissez-faire attitude already displayed by one overseer -- the Trinidadian regulator, which stamped its approval on Lease Operators' offer last week -- Touchstone is apparently not keen to risk defeat. Grumbling about quirks of U.K. law, it said today that it will let its offer lapse.
Today's jump in the share price suggests that Touchstone's shareholders are perfectly content with this. Their enthusiasm for Trinity was never as high as Mr. Baay's, and with Touchstone facing reservoir-related difficulties at its core Cascadura field (forcing a guidance reduction in August), the end of this tug-of-war means more time for problem-solving.
They now await the promised investor day. Mr. Baay has yet to specify a date, but has implied that it will happen "in the coming months."
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Cheers
Stanley