Vermilion Energy Inc T.VET

First Post- VET Currently at over $800 mm FCF

[PipelessPauper]

Hi guys!

I’m a regular contributor on the Investors Village Energy Investing board under the same handle.

Ive been following this board since I first got into VET.to last year under $4. I now own 60,000 shares of it, and I’m struggling to exercise restraint and not buy another 40,000 shares lol

but it’s really hard because the valuations are absolutely insane. This used to be a $50 stock when oil was $50-$60 a cpl years ago. Now with oil at $75, we are barely reaching $10 stock price. But the hate in endemic to all the oil stocks I own (this is my largest holding tho).

People HATE oil, and think it’s dying. If you read Facebook and listen to the news, our govt, heck all gov’ts around the world, you’d think so too. But you have to dig DEEPER. And I suspect that’s why we have all chosen VET. 

Some figures res from a recent post I made over on IV:

”I encourage you to go check their presentation to verify these figures, but here goes (I’ll try to make this short as I’m texting on my phone with 1 finger. 

In Q1, they did 86,300 boe/d and guiding 83 - 85k b/d production for the year. Using 85k, you get 31,025,000 boe / year. They are unhedged on oil after Q2, and 70% hedged on NG at $7.50 avg (?-from memory) for remainder of 2021. After that, they are unhedged on NG too. 

Using a blended avg realization of $76 for WTI/Brent/HH/TTF/AECO, and $49.77 cash costs, that’s $813,785,750 in FCF for the next 12 months. Assuming today’s prices stay the same. 

They currently owe $1950 mm in debt, so my guess is a $2-3 div per share (annually) gets reinstated when Q4 drops next March. Personally I think this is the base case, and think we hit $100 oil in the next cpl months with these massive inventory draws. So we could be looking at a lot higher div than $2-3 per share.”

so that’s the post. I hope after reading this, you will know what you own, so I hope you don’t sell. Very lucrative days are ahead for us. Cheers!

PP

[PipelessPauper]

Also, I have a great PIC (that I don’t know how to post here) showing VET has the lightest hedging out of the 40 peer companies they are compared against  this is HUGE, because it means VET gets to fully ( the last oil hedges ended Q2) participate in the oil rally. They’re actually getting Th oil price you see. NOW

[PipelessPauper]

So just reply to this and say you want the pic and I can send it by text

[whoLuLu]

Vermilion's Hedging Summary - June 30, 2021 The prices in these tables may represent the weighted averages for several contracts with foreign currency amounts translated to the disclosure currency using forward rates as at the month-end date. The weighted average price for the portfolio of options listed below may not have the same payoff profile as the individual contracts. As such, the

[PipelessPauper]

My mistake. Thank you it looks like they have a small (relative to production) hedged into Q1 2022

[whoLuLu]

no problem, it's all good,  UR welcome

[whoLuLu]

have fun, it's on their site in an easier to read format

[PipelessPauper]

I would go see it, but I have to see everything from my phone screen as I don’t have my computer hooked up yet. i was in a really bad car accident last year, coma for 22 days, and almost died. So forgive me for being slow. I have to type all this on my phone with 1 finger lol I used to work in equity valuations before the accident  now I’m medically retired