In the chart below, I have this year broken into 3 quarters - it is pretty easy to see that unhedged NG production will give some amazing results going forward in Q3. The trend has some bounds, right now we are bouncing off the top boundary, but the trend is clear. We could be reaching a point of a move down, looking at the MACD absolute numbers, and the various indicators are indicating a move downward, such as the RSI.
For the Macro, NG producers have a lot of levers to pull to get more gas - higher bean settings on chokes, more aggressive compression, less aggressive NGL removal, even DUC completions, without new drilling. But that only lasts so long and the market is seeing that, with new LNG starting toward the end of this year, and recovery driving more economic activity, which drives more NG demand. Before that though, the shoulder season has to be navigated, and on an absolute basis, there is a lot of NG still in storage, but the storage trends are clear going into the winter which could easily deplete NG stocks in the US to 1 TCF or less.