Vermilion Energy Inc T.VET

43% FCF @ $83.57 oil --- We ***could*** get a Q3 surprise

[CashGreenGold]

I noticed an error in the calcs in my previous posts.. plz use the figure presented here.

I decided to draft up a quick calc to show why I own so much of this company (600,000 common and 400,000 mostly ITM options)

 

This just shows the FCF they can produce at current price.

 

The COP includes CAPEX

 EDIT: 'Production' is for the year

 

For VET, the actual #'s are a bit different when u take WCSB gas and TTF into account, but for simplicity, i just used Oil price on all their BOE's 

(they are 50/40/10 oil/NG/Distillate)

.. this may seem aggressive, but I also ignored their Brent pricing, Brent + $10 on their AUS production... so i figured it more or less balanced out 

Again, the goal here is simple presentation

At $83.57 WTI and $53.95 COP (including ~$375,000,000 CAPEX), FCF is $943,380,000 over 12 months.

They will be under their 1.5x debt/FFO right NOW.
-----> ratio = $1,789,000,000 / $1,318,000,000...([86,000 * 365] * $42{slides}) = 1.36x

On that note, I expect the FULL div to be back in conjunction with Q4 ER in March....
....but seeing as how they are making ~ $40 bbl FCF, a 5 cent montly starter div would be nothin.... [60 cents /share vs FCF potential of $5.82] 

That starter div would be $97 mm for 12 months.
 

[Oldnagger]

VET's presentation mentions 45% Free Cash Flow in 2022 at Significantly lower oil and gas prices and a futures curves lower than the present curves. It is very hard for any patient investor to be wrong. Your calculation are much appreciated as are those by anyone else who wishes to make an effort at a prognosis.  I am getting a little frustrated at the vitriol (of which I accuse myself )

[Quintessential1]

I agree.  I am long on VET and I know the the ER will be great for VET shareholders which ever way the BOD decides to reward us.  My personal view is that there won't be a dividend reinsatement until the next ER in Q4 which will be soon enough for me.  That being said I didn't think SU was raising theirs either so shows what I know.  Either way it has been a good

[lashing]

I too predict next quarter not this one. I'd rather see this one though as VET needs to get agressive to redeem themselves. Time is ticking and with limited cash in the sector now you have to run with the dogs. VET should be able to have locked in a certain % of hedge to guarentee at least 70wti well into next year. No reason why the board cannot have everything decided right now. 

[navajojoe]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Oldnagger]

Financing has been weaponized to get the companies to do what the syndicate wants. Quite often things are not in the minority shareholders interest. I could cite a few companies such as Pony, CJ and ATH but please spare me the feedback ,I had my say back then. So in my opinion ,the best option may be to renew financing on a 5 year basis if and when available. Otherwise get debt comfortably below

[Quintessential1]

You are one crazy old crank.

[Oldnagger]

Well one of the,Liberals very well known former cabinet ministers never said that about me. We are the best of friends and while not always agreeing we value each others opinion immensely. We also grew up under similar circumstances. Lots of hard  and honest work in a sane social milieu . So I would wish uou the same., But I think you will need to work on your social skills !! By the way, now

[sclarda]

Quintessential1 wrote I agree.  I am long on VET and I know the the ER will be great for VET shareholders which ever way the BOD decides to reward us.  My personal view is that there won't be a dividend reinsatement until the next ER in Q4 which will be soon enough for me.  That being said I didn't think SU was raising theirs either so shows what I know.  Either way it