Vermilion Energy Inc T.VET

Time is on our side

[Rational43]

Every week the debt drops, the cash flows in, and the time reduces on the very low hedges on Europe NG, WTI and Brent come off.  

VET is very lightly hedged for '22, and will experience a massive increase on cash flow at these prices.  

High Europe NG prices aren't going away, and VET is one of the few that can grow production there instead of North America, where high prices won't last too long.

[Oldnagger]

Yes, VET say in their presentation they expect to make 45% on their present share price in 2020. So one way or the other we will get the same result, either share price increases or dividends. Not magic, just arithmetic !!

[Rational43]

That's at European NG prices of $8/mcf, $72 WTI and $75 Brent.   Right now Europe's NG prices have jumped to $31 per mcf, WTI is $81 and Brent is $84.   Vermillion has exposure to the European NG market that Canadian NG produces don't have.   $178 a "barrel" of NG on their unhedged, vs the $20 a "barrel" that a Canadian NG producer

[GregC24]

Hate to tell you this but the position on the Euro NG don't change a whole heck of a lot in 2022.   Check out slide 18 of the November presentation.  It's better but not a massive shift. https://www.vermilionenergy.com/files/Vermilion_Energy_-_Corporate_Presentation_-_November_2021_.pdf Big change in NA Nat gas though.

[Rational43]

50% unhedged vs 30% unhedged, plus VET has the ability to expand European NG production. Anyone who thinks Europe's issues with NG will be short lived should likely stick to index funds.  

[GregC24]

If you want to change your arguement from Europe NG to total hedge position fine.  But you keep going on about Europe NG prices and the fact is their Europe NG hedge position doesn't change much at all. The other hedges absolutely are in far better shape. While oil is hedged the hedge values are significantly improved.  But their own corporate presentation shows quite clearly that

[stockmarket1]

Everyone here now know what's expected in 2022 providing prices stay firm. Divy, high FCF, more debt pay down etc etc.  Meanwhile, what you wrote below.... the shares drop 15% or so from it's 52 week reach lol. Just saying ":)